A study published in Expert Opinion on Drug Safety in late July 2025 has linked Pfizer's Depo-Provera contraceptive to a significantly higher risk of developing intracranial meningioma with extended use, triggering a 5.2% decline in the company's stock price and intensifying ongoing legal challenges.
The research findings have added fuel to existing lawsuits against Pfizer and raised scrutiny over the company's safety warnings across different countries, highlighting what experts describe as inconsistencies in global risk communication for the well-known contraceptive product.
Legal and Reputational Implications
The study's publication represents a significant development in the growing legal challenges surrounding Depo-Provera, with the research providing scientific backing to claims that have been mounting against Pfizer. The findings have exposed potential gaps in how safety information is communicated globally, creating additional regulatory and litigation risks for the pharmaceutical giant.
These legal challenges come at a time when Pfizer is already navigating strategic changes, including the recent termination of its collaboration with Acepodia. The combination of litigation risks and strategic repositioning efforts has created what analysts describe as potential headwinds for the company's operations and reputation.
Financial Impact and Market Response
Following the study's publication, Pfizer's stock performance reflected investor concerns about the mounting legal and reputational risks. Over the past year, Pfizer's total shareholder return, including share price and dividends, declined 11.11%, underperforming compared to the broader US Pharmaceuticals industry, which saw a decline of 10.5% during the same period.
The current share price of $24.41 sits close to analysts' discounted price target of $24.57, suggesting the market may already be pricing in these uncertainties. This marginal difference implies that investor sentiment has been tempered by the ongoing challenges facing the company.
Revenue Projections Amid Challenges
Despite the legal headwinds, Pfizer's outlook anticipates $60.3 billion in revenue and $13.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 1.2% annual decline in revenue but projects an increase of $5.5 billion in earnings from the current $7.9 billion. Some of the highest analyst forecasts expect Pfizer's revenue to reach $64.3 billion by 2028, primarily driven by potential new blockbusters and increased pipeline productivity.
However, these projections were established before the latest Depo-Provera developments, and analysts note it will be important to monitor whether bullish estimates shift as risks for regulatory scrutiny and product liability claims become clearer.
Strategic Context
The Depo-Provera litigation adds a layer of legal and reputational risk to Pfizer's investment narrative, though analysts suggest it does not materially shift the primary short-term catalysts, which remain the company's upcoming earnings and pipeline readouts. The biggest risk continues to be revenue and margin pressure from patent cliffs and increased competition.
Recent developments, including the EMA's recommendation for Pfizer's Omicron LP.8.1-adapted COVID-19 vaccine, reflect the company's ongoing efforts to diversify revenue streams as older products face exclusivity losses. While this vaccine development serves as a catalyst for maintaining near-term revenue, investor focus is likely to remain on how Pfizer's pipeline can deliver sustained growth amid these headline risks.
