Moderna announced Friday it will not proceed with plans to build a messenger RNA manufacturing plant in Japan, citing "changes in the business environment" both globally and within Japan. The decision marks a significant strategic shift for the company as it grapples with declining vaccine revenues and an increasingly challenging regulatory landscape.
The biotechnology company had begun development of the facility in 2023 at the Shonan Health Innovation Park in Kanagawa Prefecture. However, weak demand for vaccines and poor business conditions ultimately led to the project's cancellation.
Financial Pressures Drive Strategic Retreat
Moderna has been significantly impacted by declining revenue from its COVID-19 shots and less-than-expected uptake of its respiratory syncytial virus vaccine. The company has been banking on revenue from newer mRNA shots to compensate for weak revenue streams, making the Japanese manufacturing expansion a casualty of broader financial pressures.
The global vaccine technologies market, despite Moderna's setbacks, continues to show robust growth potential. According to market analysis, the sector is projected to reach USD 111.52 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.0% from 2025 to 2032, driven by advancements in mRNA, viral vector, and protein subunit vaccines.
Regulatory and Political Headwinds
The pharmaceutical industry faces mounting concerns around regulations and policies following vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s appointment as U.S. Health Secretary. This appointment has created additional uncertainty for companies heavily invested in vaccine development and manufacturing.
Trade policy concerns add another layer of complexity. Japan's export-oriented economy is under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, which include a 25% tariff on Japanese imports scheduled to take effect August 1, unless a trade agreement is reached. While current U.S. trade policies do not include tariffs on pharmaceutical products, the Trump administration has been considering separate tariffs for the industry, which could be as high as 200%.
Research Operations Continue
Despite canceling the manufacturing facility, Moderna has completed construction of an mRNA drug research and manufacturing facility at the Shonan Health Innovation Park. The company stated it would reconsider the development of mRNA drug manufacturing facilities in Japan when the business environment improves.
Market Competition Intensifies
The global vaccine technologies market remains characterized by intense competition and rapid innovation. Key players including Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and AstraZeneca continue investing heavily in R&D and expanding manufacturing capabilities to meet growing demand for effective vaccines.
The market is expected to continue growing, driven by factors such as the rising incidence of infectious diseases, government funding, and technological advancements, even as individual companies like Moderna face near-term challenges in specific regional markets.
