Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
Trial Snapshot
- Phase
- Not Applicable
- Status
- Completed
- Enrollment
- 560
- Locations
- 1
- Primary Endpoint
- Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Study Overview
Brief Summary
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:
- How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
- Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
- Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?
Detailed Description
The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.
Participants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".
"SURVEY" CONDITION:
Participants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
Study Design
- Study Type
- Interventional
- Allocation
- Randomized
- Intervention Model
- Parallel
- Primary Purpose
- Other
- Masking
- None
Eligibility Criteria
- Ages
- 18 Years to — (Adult, Older Adult)
- Sex
- All
- Accepts Healthy Volunteers
- Yes
Inclusion Criteria
- •National University of Singapore students
Exclusion Criteria
- Not provided
Arms & Interventions
Control
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey
Treatment
Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market
Intervention: Prediction Market (Other)
Outcomes
Primary Outcomes
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
Time Frame: 24 hours
Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format: "What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?" Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option. The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
Secondary Outcomes
- Fear(24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment))
Investigators
Ho Teck Hua
Senior Deputy President & Provost
National University of Singapore