Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
试验速览
- 阶段
- 不适用
- 状态
- 已完成
- 入组人数
- 560
- 试验地点
- 1
- 主要终点
- Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
研究概览
简要总结
The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Specifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:
- How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?
- Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?
- Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?
详细描述
The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.
Participants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".
"SURVEY" CONDITION:
Participants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:
"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"
研究设计
- 研究类型
- Interventional
- 分配方式
- Randomized
- 干预模型
- Parallel
- 主要目的
- Other
- 盲法
- None
入排标准
- 年龄范围
- 18 Years 至 —（Adult, Older Adult）
- 性别
- All
- 接受健康志愿者
- 是
入选标准
- •National University of Singapore students
排除标准
- 未提供
结局指标
主要结局
Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
时间窗: 24 hours
Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format: "What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?" Each question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants' perceived likelihood of each answer option. The 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).
次要结局
- Fear(24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment))
研究者
Ho Teck Hua
Senior Deputy President & Provost
National University of Singapore