A Predictive Model for Recurrence and Progression Risk After TURBT for Bladder Cancer on Intraoperative Irrigation Fluid Absorption Volume and Perioperative cfDNA Levels

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignancies of the urinary system. Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer accounts for the majority of newly diagnosed cases. Transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) is the standard procedure for the diagnosis, staging, and initial treatment of bladder cancer, particularly non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. However, postoperative recurrence and progression remain common in some patients, especially those with high-risk pathological features.

During TURBT, mechanical resection, electrosurgical thermal injury, and continuous bladder irrigation may lead to tumor cell shedding and the release of tumor-derived molecular components into the irrigation fluid. Disruption of the mucosal and vascular barriers, opening of venous sinuses, increased intravesical pressure, and absorption of irrigation fluid may theoretically facilitate the entry of tumor-related components into the circulation. Although previous studies have mainly focused on intravesical tumor cell implantation and local recurrence, the relationship between intraoperative irrigation fluid absorption, perioperative cfDNA dynamics, and postoperative oncological outcomes remains insufficiently understood.

In this prospective observational cohort study, patients undergoing TURBT for suspected or confirmed bladder cancer will be enrolled. Intraoperative irrigation fluid absorption volume will be measured and recorded. Peripheral blood samples will be collected before surgery and within 24 hours after surgery for cfDNA extraction and mutation analysis using a multiplex mutation detection system based on nucleic acid mass spectrometry. Tumor tissue mutation status will also be evaluated when available.

The primary objective is to determine whether the volume of intraoperative irrigation fluid absorption is associated with perioperative changes in plasma cfDNA levels and tumor-related mutation detection. Secondary objectives include evaluating the association of cfDNA dynamics and irrigation fluid absorption with clinicopathological characteristics, including tumor stage, grade, size, number, invasion depth, concomitant carcinoma in situ, operative time, resection depth, and blood loss. Postoperative recurrence, progression, metastasis, and other adverse oncological outcomes will be assessed during follow-up.

The study is observational and will not alter standard clinical treatment decisions. The findings may help clarify perioperative molecular changes associated with TURBT and provide preliminary evidence for improving risk stratification and individualized postoperative surveillance in patients with bladder cancer.