Pancreatic Disease Burden in Older Adults (1990-2040)

Completed

• Conditions: Pancreatic Cancer; Pancreatitis
• Interventions: Biological: Natural history

• Registration Number: NCT07177599
• Lead Sponsor: Changhai Hospital

Brief Summary

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the investigators analyzed age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for pancreatic cancer and pancreatitis in adults aged ≥70 years across 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex, Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), health system performance, and region. The investigators calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), applied age-period-cohort modelling, and used Bayesian models to project future burden. Attributable burdens for key risk factors were also estimated.

Detailed Description

Not available

Study Timeline

• Study Start: 1990-01-01
• Primary Completion: 2021-12-31
• Status Verified: 2025-09
• Study First Submitted: 2025-09-10
• Study First Submitted QC: 2025-09-10
• Last Update Submitted: 2025-09-10
• Study Completion: 2025-09-11
• Study First Posted: 2025-09-17
• Last Update Posted: 2025-09-17

Recruitment & Eligibility

• Status: COMPLETED
• Sex: All
• Target Recruitment: 723415

Inclusion Criteria

• Diagnosis with pancreatic cancer or pancreatitis
• Diagnosis in 1990 through 2021
• Age 70+ years

Exclusion Criteria

• Age <70 years
• Other non-pancreatic diseases

Study & Design

• Study Type: OBSERVATIONAL
• Study Design: Not specified

Arm && Interventions

Group	Intervention	Description
Pancreatic Cancer	Natural history	-
Pancreatitis	Natural history	-

Primary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Incidence	1990-2021	The number of new cases of a givencause during a given period in aspecified population. It is xpressed as the number of newcases in a year divided by the mid-year population size.
Deaths	1990-2021	Deaths occurring in a population during a certain time period.
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)	1990-2021	The sum of years lost due to premature death (YLLs) and yearslived with disability (YLDs). DALYs are also defined as years of healthy life lost.