1 Year Post Discharge Prognostic Model From the National Heart Failure Audit (NHFA)

There is a need for a prognostic model for 1 year survival of patients discharged alive after an unscheduled hospital admission for heart failure. This study aims to develop and validate a prognostic model that will enable management planning and facilitate the identification of therapeutic needs or targets. Also, it will assist care providers to predict or quantify patients' survival based on their baseline characteristics.

The National Heart Failure Audit (NHFA) held by National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research (NICOR) is one of the largest available national heart failure registry. It includes data from unscheduled heart failure admissions in England and Wales. In the audit, heart failure diagnosis is defined as a diagnosis that has been confirmed by imaging or brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) measurement. This study will use NHFA data to develop and validate the proposed model.