PrognostICate- Study:Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040

Recruiting

• Conditions: ICU Admission
• Interventions: Other: Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment

• Registration Number: NCT06289075
• Lead Sponsor: University Hospital of Cologne

Brief Summary

The Objective of this retrospective multicenter- study is to forecast Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models and historical, national and international ICU databases and population databases.

Detailed Description

Adequate resource allocation in Intensive Care Medicine is especially challenging due to limited resources and increasing demands for ICU capacities due to an aging population and medical advances. Several studies in the past were trying to predict ICULOS using different models. The Objective and aim of our retrospective multicenter study are to forecast ICU length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models.

To achieve this objective, historical ICU data spanning from 2005 to 2023 is collected from international ICU databases worldwide as well as population data from national and international databases and employ different statistical forecasting models (ARIMA-Model (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), logistic regression, Poisson Regression and ETS (Exponential smoothing)) to make these predictions. The Validity of the 4 different models is assessed with out-of-time-cross validity by splitting the data in 2 subsets for generation and testing of the model in a ratio of approximately 75:25 of the dataset. The most valid model of the 4 different models will be chosen. The statistical analysis follows he guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER Statement) von Stevens et al. from the year 2016.

The ultimate goal of this project is to provide valuable insights to healthcare system decision-makers worldwide regarding future requirements of ICU beds and ventilator capacities. With this insight we want to enable healthcare- system decision makers worldwide to proactively anticipate and allocate appropriate ICU resources for the future.

Study Timeline

• Study First Submitted: 2024-02-24
• Study First Submitted QC: 2024-02-24
• Study Start: 2024-03-01
• Study First Posted: 2024-03-01
• Status Verified: 2024-07
• Last Update Submitted: 2024-07-19
• Last Update Posted: 2024-07-23
• Primary Completion: 2025-06-01
• Study Completion: 2025-06-01

Recruitment & Eligibility

• Status: RECRUITING
• Sex: All
• Target Recruitment: 10000000

Inclusion Criteria

• All patients admitted to an ICU between the years 2005-2023

Exclusion Criteria

• Patients without ICU admission or ICU admission < 4 hours

Study & Design

• Study Type: OBSERVATIONAL
• Study Design: Not specified

Arm && Interventions

Group	Intervention	Description
ICU patients	Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment	All ICU patients in different countries worldwide from 2005-2023

Primary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Length of ICU stay	2024-2040	Forecasting ICU stay for the next 16 years
Length of mechanical ventilation	2024-2040	Forecasting mechanical ventilation for the next 16 years

Trial Locations

Locations (1)

Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine; 🇩🇪 Cologne, NRW, Germany