Development and validation of lumbar risk prediction model and its reliability testing for chronic non specific low back pain

**Public Title:**Development and Validation of Lumbar Risk Prediction Model for Chronic Non-Specific Low Back Pain

**Brief Summary for CTRI Registration:**This prospective cohort study aims to develop, validate, and assess the reliability of the Lumbar Risk prediction model, which estimates the risk of chronic non-specific low back pain (CNSLBP) among young adults aged 19–45 years. NSLBP is a multifactorial condition with no specific pathology, and early identification of high-risk individuals can significantly reduce chronicity and associated disability.

The study involves three phases:

1. Phase 1 – Risk Factor Identification: A comprehensive literature review and expert survey will identify key risk factors using the biopsychosocial model.
2. Phase 2 – Model Development & Validation: A prediction model will be developed using regression techniques and internally validated with 495 participants categorized into three groups—no pain, acute LBP, and chronic LBP. The model’s performance will be evaluated using AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and calibration plots.
3. Phase 3 – Reliability Testing: Inter-rater and test-retest reliability will be assessed in a clinical setting using Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) on a sample of 60 participants.

Primary Objectives:

• To develop and validate a predictive model to identify individuals at high risk of developing chronic NSLBP.
• To assess the reliability (inter-rater and test-retest) of the developed model in a clinical setting.

**Outcome:**A validated, reliable, and clinically applicable Lumbar Risk model that can aid physiotherapists and clinicians in predicting and managing the risk of chronic NSLBP effectively.