AbbVie's Pivekimab sunirine and Deciphera Pharmaceuticals' Vimseltinib represent promising therapeutic agents in oncology, with both drugs undergoing valuation analysis using risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) models. These models, which account for the probability of clinical trial success and regulatory approval, provide a more conservative valuation measure for drugs in development.
Pivekimab Sunirine: Targeting CD123-Positive Hematologic Malignancies
Pivekimab sunirine (IMGN-632), developed by AbbVie, is an antibody-drug conjugate designed to treat CD123-positive hematologic malignancies. These include blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm, myeloproliferative disorders, acute lymphocytic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, and relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia. Administered intravenously, the drug combines a humanized anti-CD123 antibody with an indolinobenzodiazepine payload that alkylates DNA.
GlobalData’s analysis projects that Pivekimab sunirine will reach an annual revenue of $21 million by 2038 in the US. The rNPV model incorporates the drug's phase transition success rate and likelihood of approval (LoA) to provide a risk-adjusted valuation. This approach considers the potential for failure during clinical development, offering a more realistic assessment of the drug's economic value.
Pivekimab sunirine was also previously under development for chronic myelocytic leukemia (CML) and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML).
Vimseltinib: A Kinase Inhibitor for Advanced Malignancies
Vimseltinib (DCC-3014), developed by Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, is an orally administered kinase inhibitor targeting the FMS kinase (CSF1R). It is under development for advanced malignancies such as solid tumors and tenosynovial giant cell tumor, as well as chronic graft versus host disease. The drug is based on Deciphera's kinase inhibitor technology.
GlobalData estimates that Vimseltinib will generate $173 million in annual revenue by 2034 in the US. Similar to Pivekimab sunirine, the rNPV model for Vimseltinib accounts for the drug's phase transition success rate and LoA, providing a risk-adjusted valuation. This is particularly important given the challenges and high failure rates associated with oncology drug development.
Vimseltinib was also previously in development for glioma, renal cell carcinoma, osteolytic cancer, acute myeloid leukemia (AML), colorectal cancer, bone metastasis, prostate cancer, myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL).
Financial Performance of AbbVie and Deciphera Pharmaceuticals
AbbVie reported revenues of US$54.318 billion for the fiscal year ended December 2023, a decrease of 6.4% over FY2022. The company's operating margin was 23.5% in FY2023, compared to 31.2% in FY2022, with a net margin of 9% compared to 20.4% in FY2022. For the first quarter ended March 2024, AbbVie reported revenues of US$12.310 billion, a decrease of 13.9% over the previous quarter.
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals is a research and development company focused on kinase-inhibiting drugs. Their pipeline includes tumor-targeted and immuno-targeted therapies, utilizing a proprietary switch control inhibitor platform.
The Role of rNPV in Pharmaceutical Valuation
The risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model is a critical tool in pharmaceutical valuation, integrating the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time. This provides a more accurate valuation by considering the likelihood that the drug may not progress through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData's rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
