Novo Nordisk has permanently forfeited Canadian patent protection for semaglutide—the blockbuster active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy—after failing to pay a routine $450 maintenance fee in 2019. Under Canada's Patent Act, once a missed-fee grace period lapses, rights "cannot be revived," formally clearing the way for rival filings.
The pharmaceutical giant last paid Canadian maintenance charges in 2018, then asked for a refund of its 2017 remittance "to buy time" before ultimately letting the patent die. Canadian maintenance charges start at $100 in year 3 and ratchet up annually, making the missed payment particularly striking given the drug's massive commercial success.
Financial Impact on Canada's Largest Drug Market
Ozempic alone generated around $14 billion in global sales last year, with roughly $2.5 billion of that coming from Canada, making it the nation's top-selling drug. Analysts peg the Canadian GLP-1 receptor-agonist market at $1.18 billion in 2023, set to compound 23% annually to more than $5 billion by 2030, with Ozempic capturing the lion's share.
The patent lapse affects one of Novo's largest semaglutide markets globally, with Canada representing the company's second-largest market for the drug. Once generics enter the market, analysts expect prices of Ozempic and Wegovy to drop by as much as 50 to 80% compared to the brand-name versions.
Generic Competition Ready for 2026 Launch
Because biologics enjoy eight years of data exclusivity in Canada, generic applications cannot obtain a Notice of Compliance until January 2026—exactly eight years after Ozempic's approval in January 2018. However, several major generic manufacturers have positioned themselves for immediate market entry.
Sandoz, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, and Aspen Pharmacare have all confirmed semaglutide dossiers "ready to go," with Sandoz publicly targeting a Canadian launch once the clock hits zero. Sandoz CEO Richard Saynor told Bloomberg the company would use Canada as a launchpad, citing the absence of a valid Novo GLP-1 patent as a clear green light.
Strategic Miscalculation or Oversight?
The case raises questions about whether the lapse was a genuine oversight or a calculated decision. Steven Shape, partner and intellectual property chair at Omnus Law, noted: "I am surprised that Novo did not pay the relatively insignificant maintenance fee to keep its issued Canadian patent alive."
However, the situation becomes more complex when considering Novo's certificate of supplementary protection (CSP). The company did file a CSP for the semaglutide patent, which was granted by Canadian authorities and scheduled to take effect in March 2026, lasting until March 2028. This would have provided two additional years of exclusivity beyond the standard patent term.
"The CSP is only enforceable if the underlying patent is valid and in force at the time the CSP is set to take effect," Shape explained. "If the patent lapses before the CSP's start date, due to non-payment of maintenance fees or other reasons, the CSP cannot legally take effect or be enforced."
Broader Implications for Patent Strategy
The patent expiration could have consequences beyond Canada's borders. Novo's US patents run until at least 2032, yet Florida and several other states have Section 804 drug-import plans on the FDA's desk. A validated Canadian biosimilar supply line could hand import advocates their best test case, potentially dragging semaglutide prices southward well before Wall Street predictions.
"These issues are not unique to Canada," Shape noted. "Similar waves of generic filings are expected or already underway in other countries where semaglutide patents are expiring, such as China, India, and Brazil."
Market Transformation Ahead
Once the protection expires in January 2026, Novo Nordisk will lose its exclusive rights to sell semaglutide-based drugs in Canada, opening the market to generic and biosimilar competitors. Public healthcare systems are likely to pivot quickly, switching patients to cheaper versions as they become available.
The financial implications extend beyond immediate revenue loss. As Shape observed: "Novo's market shares will likely decline as healthcare providers and patients shift toward more affordable generic alternatives. Novo may focus on differentiating its products, such as with new formulations or combinations, but the core semaglutide market will face increased competition."
For companies managing global intellectual property portfolios, the case serves as a reminder of the complexity involved in tracking deadlines, fee payments, and compliance requirements across multiple jurisdictions. Even for large pharmaceutical companies with robust IP management systems, a single missed payment can have far-reaching consequences in today's competitive landscape.
