Novo Nordisk's Phase III trial data for CagriSema in obesity has led to disappointing results, causing analysts to predict a significant drop in the company's stock value. The data revealed a 20.4% absolute weight loss, which fell short of the 25%-27% that many investors anticipated.
Analyst Concerns and Market Reaction
According to Jefferies analyst Peter Welford, the initial headline from the CagriSema data was a disappointment. The lower-than-expected weight loss, coupled with potential patient adherence issues stemming from tolerability concerns, has tempered expectations for the drug's market performance. Jefferies anticipates Novo Nordisk shares to decline by at least 10%-15% following the release of the CagriSema obesity data.
The firm's buy-side survey indicated that most expected a 25%-27% absolute weight loss, with gastrointestinal tolerability broadly similar to Wegovy. The reported 20.4% weight loss has raised questions about the drug's efficacy and patient compliance.
Sales Forecast Revision
Jefferies has revised its peak sales forecast for CagriSema to $7.75 billion, a figure significantly below the consensus estimate of over $20 billion. This adjustment reflects the reduced confidence in the drug's ability to capture a substantial share of the obesity treatment market.
Novo Nordisk's Current Standing
Jefferies maintains an Underperform rating on Novo Nordisk, with a price target of $81.50. Premarket trading saw the stock down 19%, or $19.84, to $83.60, indicating the immediate negative reaction to the CagriSema data.
