GSK faced significant headwinds in its vaccine business during the third quarter of 2024, with sales of key products declining sharply, prompting a 3% drop in the company's U.S. trading shares on Wednesday. The British pharmaceutical giant has further downgraded its vaccine sales forecasts, now expecting a low single-digit decline compared to the previous year.
Sharp Decline in Key Vaccine Performance
The company's RSV vaccine Arexvy experienced the most dramatic decline, with sales plummeting 72% year-over-year to £188 million ($244 million), compared to £709 million in the same period last year. The company's established shingles vaccine, Shingrix, also saw a 7% decrease, with sales falling to £739 million ($959 million) from £825 million in the previous year.
Multiple Factors Affecting RSV Vaccine Sales
Several factors contributed to Arexvy's significant sales decrease. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) narrowed its recommendation for RSV vaccination, now focusing primarily on adults aged 75 and older, along with high-risk individuals between 60 and 74 years. This represents a substantial shift from the previous guidance that encouraged vaccination discussions for all adults over 60.
Additional challenges included:
- Prioritization of COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S. market
- Lower rates of RSV infections this season
- Impact of significant initial stocking during last year's first market season
Competitive Landscape and Market Position
While GSK maintains leadership in the RSV vaccine market, competition is intensifying. Pfizer's competing vaccine, Abrysvo, has gained market share, leveraging its additional approvals for maternal vaccination and use in high-risk adults aged 18 and older.
Luke Miels, GSK's commercial chief, remained optimistic during Wednesday's conference call, stating, "We're still in the foothills of this vaccine's availability and usage." He emphasized the company's ongoing efforts to provide data to the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to support future recommendations on RSV vaccine usage.
Future Outlook and Potential
Despite current challenges, GSK maintains a positive long-term outlook for Arexvy. The company projects annual peak sales to exceed £3 billion, with both GSK and Pfizer anticipating the need for revaccination to maintain protection in older adults. This potential requirement for booster shots could significantly impact future sales trajectories.
