Amgen's stock recently faced turbulence following the surfacing of previously unnoticed data from a Phase 1 trial of its anti-obesity drug candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide). The revelation, concerning potential bone mineral density (BMD) loss, triggered market unease and a subsequent stock dip, despite Amgen's efforts to reassure investors.
Unexpected Data Raises Concerns
The controversy began when a Wall Street analyst uncovered a 'hidden' Excel tab within Amgen's nine-month-old Phase 1 trial results for MariTide. This data indicated that a subset of patients, specifically those receiving the highest tested dose, experienced an average bone mineral density loss of 4% over a 12-week period. The finding was particularly pronounced in one patient, raising questions about the drug's potential impact on bone health.
Amgen's Response and Market Reaction
In response to the analyst's report, Amgen issued a statement asserting that the Phase 1 study results "do not suggest any bone safety concern or change our conviction in the promise of MariTide." However, the market's initial reaction was unfavorable, with Amgen's shares falling significantly. While the stock price showed some recovery after Amgen's statement, the incident underscored the sensitivity of investors to any potential safety signals associated with the drug.
MariTide's Potential in the Obesity Market
MariTide is Amgen's entry into the competitive anti-obesity market, currently dominated by Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide). These existing treatments have demonstrated significant weight loss efficacy, with Zepbound showing an average of 24% weight loss over 52 weeks and Wegovy a 14% reduction. However, they are also associated with gastrointestinal side effects that can lead to high discontinuation rates, estimated to be as high as 50% after one year.
Amgen hopes to differentiate MariTide through a more convenient monthly dosing schedule, compared to the weekly injections required for Zepbound and Wegovy. Phase 2 clinical trials have shown that MariTide led to patients experiencing weight loss of 20% of their mass on average over the course of a year. Only 8% of patients discontinued treatment as a result of gastrointestinal side effects, and effects like nausea reduced significantly after the first dose. The company is also betting on its potential to address a broader patient population, including those who are overweight but not necessarily obese.
Ongoing Development and Future Outlook
Despite the recent controversy, Amgen is moving forward with Phase 3 clinical trials for MariTide. The company aims to use these trials to optimize dosing and identify patient demographics that may benefit most from the drug. While the bone density concerns have introduced an element of risk, analysts suggest that the potential upside of MariTide, coupled with Amgen's broader pipeline and strong financial performance, still makes the stock a worthwhile investment.
