Major Indian pharmaceutical companies are positioning themselves to capture a significant share of the rapidly expanding global weight-loss drug market by developing generic versions of Novo Nordisk's blockbuster treatment Wegovy. Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr Reddy's, and Lupin have all confirmed they are working on semaglutide-based therapies as analysts predict the weight-loss market could reach $100 billion annually by the end of the decade.
The strategic move comes as Novo Nordisk and U.S. rival Eli Lilly struggle to meet overwhelming global demand for their weight-loss medications. Novo has been unable to produce sufficient quantities of Wegovy to satisfy demand in more than half a dozen countries where it has launched, while Eli Lilly faces similar supply constraints with its weight-loss drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro.
Patent Expiration Timeline Creates Market Opportunity
Novo Nordisk's patents for Wegovy present a clear timeline for generic competition. According to the company's annual report, semaglutide patents expire in China in 2026, in Japan and Europe in 2031, and in the United States in 2032. While Novo has not disclosed when its Indian patent expires, the company aims to launch Wegovy in India by 2026.
"We want to market this product on time in all the markets as (Novo's) patent expires," said Dr Reddy's CEO Erez Israeli during a media call last month.
Systematix analyst Vishal Manchanda expects significant market expansion following patent expiration: "We expect volume expansion to increase multi-fold by the time patent expires, which is a few years from now. They will also be available at a much lower price by generic drugmakers."
Diverse Development Strategies Among Indian Companies
The Indian pharmaceutical companies are pursuing different approaches to enter the semaglutide market. Dr Reddy's and Cipla are developing generic versions that copy the innovator drug, while Sun Pharma is taking a more ambitious route by creating its own experimental drug to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity.
"Dr. Reddy's and Cipla are making a copy of the innovator drug more like a generic version, while Sun is working on its own innovator drug. So, Sun will have to do clinical trials. Its drug will be novel and patented," Manchanda explained.
Cipla Global CEO Umang Vohra highlighted the market potential during a post-earnings call in January: "There is big potential in India... given the lifestyle choices."
Significant Market Opportunity in India
India presents a substantial target market for weight-loss medications. The country has high obesity rates, particularly among women, and holds the world's second-highest number of people with type 2 diabetes, trailing only China. According to the World Obesity Federation Atlas, approximately 11% of adults in India will be obese by 2035.
The Indian diabetes drug market alone was valued at 316 billion rupees ($3.81 billion) in 2023 and is projected to reach 1.2 trillion rupees ($14.48 billion) within the next decade, according to Expert Market Research.
Clinical Efficacy and Expanding Applications
Wegovy demonstrated significant efficacy in clinical trials, helping patients lose up to 15% of their body weight, while Eli Lilly's competing drugs showed even greater weight reduction in trial participants. These medications belong to the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, originally developed to control blood sugar in type 2 diabetes patients. The drugs work by slowing digestion and helping people feel full longer.
Recent data indicating that GLP-1 receptor agonists may delay progression of chronic kidney disease and reduce heart disease risks are expected to further increase demand for these therapies.
Market Development Challenges
Despite the promising opportunity, Indian pharmaceutical companies face unique challenges in developing the domestic market. DAM Capital analyst Nitin Agarwal noted: "In India, the requirement is to develop a market for anti-obesity (drugs), unlike in other countries where drugmakers can just take a share of existing market."
The move by Indian drugmakers could significantly improve global access to weight-loss medications while making them more affordable, according to industry analysts. Novo Nordisk responded to the competitive landscape by stating it "welcomes new treatment options" for people living with obesity.
