Cancer Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa Projected to More Than Double by 2050, WHO Report Warns
Key Insights
The WHO projects that cancer diagnoses in sub-Saharan Africa will more than double by 2050, the highest rate of increase among all six WHO-designated regions.
Approximately 70% of cancer patients in Nigeria are diagnosed at stage 3 or 4, and the country has only about 80 oncologists for a population of 242 million.
Nigeria's five-year breast cancer (search) survival rate stands at just 28%, compared to a global median of 78%, according to WHO data from 2017–2021.
When Titilayo found a lump in her left breast in a small city in southern Nigeria, it felt like a death sentence. "My world was crumbling," she told NPR. "I had no hope, I had no life." Her experience reflects a growing crisis across sub-Saharan Africa, where cancer rates are rising faster than anywhere else in the world — and healthcare systems are struggling to keep pace.
The World Health Organization's latest projections paint a stark picture: by 2050, cancer cases in sub-Saharan Africa will more than double, representing the highest rate of increase among the WHO's six designated regions. The Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes much of northern Africa and the Gulf, is a close second.
A healthcare system under strain
In Abuja, Nigeria's capital, radiation oncologist Dr. Basira Hanafi Lawal witnesses the surge daily. "We're wondering, are we creating more awareness for people and that's why they're coming in, or are the numbers just increasing?" she says. Lawal points to several contributing risk factors: Nigeria's older population is growing, and more people are adopting urban, sedentary lifestyles, consuming alcohol, and smoking tobacco.
The numbers behind the crisis are sobering. Lawal is one of approximately 80 oncologists serving a nation of 242 million people. By comparison, the United States has roughly 27,500 oncologists for a population of 340 million. Although more than half of cancer patients globally require radiation therapy, Nigeria has only 15 radiation centers nationwide. "Sometimes you have patients traveling, maybe eight hours," Lawal notes. "There are still a lot of areas and regions that are without radiotherapy centers, so the access is going to be quite limited."
Late-stage diagnoses and financial devastation
Lawal estimates that 70% of her patients are diagnosed at stage 3 or 4, when tumors have already spread from the original site into surrounding tissues, lymph nodes, or other organs. "It's really heartbreaking," she says. "Especially at the later stages — what do you do for them? And they ask you — what do I do?"
The financial burden compounds the clinical challenges. According to WHO's Global Health Expenditure Database, patients were responsible for more than 80% of cancer care costs in Nigeria in 2022. Many health insurance plans in the country do not include comprehensive cancer care, forcing families to pay out-of-pocket. Local crowdfunding websites are filled with posts from cancer patients seeking money for surgery and medications.
"I've seen people sell everything they have and still lose their loved ones," says Abigail Simon-Hart, a Nigerian breast cancer (search) survivor and advocate who served as a reviewer for the WHO report. "It's a very huge burden on the average family."
Regina Fisayo Akinola, a breast cancer (search) survivor and advocate in Ado Ekiti, Nigeria, describes the lengths patients go to: "We have to go through loans — bank loans, to take loans from our workplace or to solicit funds from friends and family." Akinola completed treatment in 2014 and again in 2020 after discovering another tumor in her right breast. She attributes her survival to early detection through regular mammograms and family support.
Survival outcomes and emerging patterns
The consequences of delayed diagnosis, limited access to care, and financial barriers are reflected in survival statistics. WHO's Global Health Observatory data from 2017–2021 shows that just 28% of women diagnosed with breast cancer (search) in Nigeria were still alive five years later. The global median rate was 78%.
Ethel Olomu, a breast cancer (search) survivor from Rivers State diagnosed with stage 4 disease at age 31, puts it bluntly: "We are not dying because our cancer is worse. It's because our system fails us."
Lawal has also observed shifting epidemiological patterns. As in other parts of the world, colorectal cancer (search) — historically associated with older individuals — has become more common in youth. She recalls a 19-year-old patient diagnosed with this cancer.
Prevention efforts and government response
The Nigerian government has set a goal of reducing cancer cases by 30% by 2030 and established the Nigerian Cancer Health Fund (search) in 2020 to assist low-income patients. Leaders are working with international organizations to improve access to care, including purchasing additional radiation machines for local hospitals.
"The government is actually investing in the infrastructure that's highly costly," says Jennifer Dent, CEO of BIO Ventures for Global Health (search), a nonprofit that collaborates with companies and governments in low- and middle-income countries to improve cancer treatment access.
Prevention has also become a priority. Cervical cancer (search), which can be prevented with the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, remains one of the most common cancers diagnosed in Nigeria, Kenya, and other African countries. Kenya integrated the HPV vaccine into its routine immunization program in 2019; Nigeria followed in 2023. "There's a lot of mistrust in vaccines in Nigeria, but there's some highly influential champions for cervical cancer in the country that I think are doing phenomenal work in driving public awareness," Dent says.
In another initiative, BIO Ventures helped create a public awareness campaign in Côte d'Ivoire with video advertisements on commuter buses, encouraging men to get regular screenings for prostate cancer (search).
Stigma and the human toll
Beyond the clinical and financial obstacles, cancer survivors in Nigeria face profound social challenges. Olomu recalls the isolation of treatment: "I lost my hair, and my eyebrows, my skin changed — and people would say, 'oh, you look like a witch.' Because people didn't know that this is how cancer treatment works." Her experience led her to found the Engraced Life Foundation, a support group for women in Rivers State that now includes more than 200 members.
Titilayo, who asked NPR to use only her first name to speak openly about her experience, describes enduring "stigma, the gossips, the rejection" after her mastectomy and chemotherapy. Yet she now shows no evidence of disease and remains resolute: "I still insist that my life is worth more than any trauma or emotional issue."