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Cipla's gAbraxane Launch Accelerated by FDA Approval, Boosting Stock Outlook

• Cipla's Goa plant received a Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI) classification from the US FDA, a positive shift from its previous Official Action Indicated (OAI) status. • The VAI classification is expected to expedite the launch of gAbraxane, a generic version of Abraxane, potentially by the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. • Analysts project that a successful gAbraxane launch could contribute an additional 2-3% to Cipla's core earnings for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. • JPMorgan has reiterated its Overweight rating on Cipla stock with a price target of INR 1,600.00, citing the accelerated gAbraxane launch timeline.

Cipla's stock outlook has received a boost following the US FDA's decision to grant a Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI) classification to its Goa plant. This development is set to accelerate the launch of gAbraxane, Cipla's generic version of Abraxane, potentially impacting the company's earnings positively. The news has prompted JPMorgan to reiterate its Overweight rating on Cipla, maintaining a price target of INR 1,600.00.

FDA Classification Shift

The Goa plant's upgrade to VAI status marks a significant turnaround. Previously, the facility was under an Official Action Indicated (OAI) status since November 2022. Following a re-inspection from June 10 to June 21, 2024, the plant received a Form 483 with six observations. Despite the initial concerns, the FDA's decision to grant VAI status has been viewed as a positive surprise, paving the way for the expedited launch of gAbraxane.

Impact on gAbraxane Launch

The clearance of the Goa plant is particularly crucial as it directly influences the timeline for gAbraxane's market entry. The launch was initially conservatively projected for the second half of fiscal year 2027 due to the OAI status. However, with the VAI classification, expectations have shifted to an earlier launch, potentially in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. Hengrui/Sandoz has already introduced the first generic version of Abraxane in October, but a significant sales ramp-up is not anticipated until the following year. If Cipla manages to launch gAbraxane by the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, it is projected to contribute an additional 2-3% to the company's core earnings for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

Financial Projections and Analyst Confidence

Analysts predict that the successful launch of gAbraxane could substantially bolster Cipla's financial performance. The anticipated contribution of 2-3% to core earnings in fiscal years 2026 and 2027 underscores the significance of this product to Cipla's revenue stream. JPMorgan's reaffirmed Overweight rating and price target reflect confidence in Cipla's growth potential, driven by the accelerated gAbraxane launch and the resolution of the Goa plant's regulatory status.
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Reference News

[1]
JPMorgan sees Cipla stock upside as FDA approval accelerates gAbraxane launch
investing.com · Oct 31, 2024

JPMorgan maintains Overweight rating on CIPLA:IN stock with a target of INR 1,600.00, following the Goa plant's VAI clas...

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