Vir Biotechnology Inc. has experienced a challenging year, marked by a 54% decline in its stock value year-to-date. This downturn is largely attributed to underwhelming outcomes from clinical trials targeting influenza A and hepatitis B virus (HBV), according to a recent analysis by Bank of America.
Downgrade and Revised Expectations
Bank of America (BofA) has downgraded Vir Biotechnology's stock to Neutral, reducing the price target from $23 to $14. This adjustment reflects concerns about the near-term prospects for HBV treatments and the timeline for potential product launches, now estimated to be in late 2026.
Despite these challenges, BofA analysts acknowledge the potential of Vir's technology and pipeline, including a next-generation COVID-19 antibody. The company's negative enterprise value is also seen as providing some downside protection.
Focus on HBV Triple Combination Therapy
A critical upcoming event is the release of results from a triple combination treatment for HBV, involving Vir-2218, Vir-3434, and PEG-INF. Data from 24 weeks of treatment are expected in the fourth quarter of 2023. The success of this triple combination is paramount for commercial viability, with analysts estimating that functional cure rates of over 40-50% are necessary for significant market impact.
Future Catalysts and Data Readouts
While near-term trial readouts in HBV are not expected to significantly alter investor sentiment, several catalysts are anticipated in 2024. These include functional cure data from the triple combination with 24 weeks of treatment (Q2 2024), initial data from the 48-week treatment arm of the triple combination (Q4 2024), and updated HDV clinical data (Q2 2024). These data releases could substantially influence investor sentiment and the future performance of Vir shares.
Market Reaction
Following the BofA downgrade, Vir's shares initially fell over 8% before recovering slightly, ultimately trading 4.7% lower at $11.02.
