MFN Drug Pricing Policy Expected to Reduce Access in Reference Countries
核心洞察
A modeling study in The Lancet (搜索) finds Medicare (搜索)'s new Most-Favored-Nation pricing policy could prompt manufacturers to raise prices or delay launches in other high-income countries.
Projected initial-phase Medicare (搜索) savings reach $5.2 billion (16%) under GLOBE and $6.4 billion (18%) under GUARD, covering about 25% of the program.
For the first 17 manufacturers with announced agreements, reported confidential deals could cut the study's projected Medicare (搜索) savings by 71%.
A new modeling study published in The Lancet (搜索) suggests that US Medicare (搜索)'s new 'Most-Favored-Nation' pricing policy, which ties what Medicare pays for medicines to prices charged in other high-income countries, could push pharmaceutical manufacturers to raise prices or delay launches. For about three in four medicines studied, the resulting Medicare savings would be worth almost four times that medicine's entire annual sales in the country used to set its price, potentially giving manufacturers a strong incentive to change how they price and launch products outside the USA.
The policy could cut Medicare (搜索)'s prescription drug spending by $5.2 billion (16%) under GLOBE, which covers medicines given in hospitals and clinics, and $6.4 billion (18%) under GUARD, which covers medicines bought at the pharmacy, in its initial phase covering about 25% of the Medicare program. Savings could rise to an estimated $21 billion under GLOBE and $25.5 billion under GUARD if expanded to all Medicare beneficiaries. However, the study estimates that reported confidential deals between manufacturers and the Trump administration could cut the policy's overall Medicare savings, with projected savings reduced by 71% for the initial group of 17 manufacturers with announced agreements.
Medicare (搜索) is the US government health insurance programme covering around 68 million older and disabled people, and was historically barred from negotiating medicine prices directly with manufacturers until the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (搜索) authorized negotiation for a small number of costly medicines. The new policy goes further, aligning Medicare payment for brand-name medicines with prices in comparable high-income countries, adjusted for purchasing power; under GLOBE and GUARD, a randomly selected 25% of Medicare beneficiaries would be covered over a five-year period. Because both models tie US payments to prices charged elsewhere, they could reshape drug pricing and market strategy outside the USA.