Moderna Braces for Uneventful Q2 as Investors Eye Pivotal Melanoma Vaccine Data in 2026
Key Insights
Moderna is expected to report Q2 revenue of approximately $100 million, down sharply from $389 million in Q1, reflecting the seasonal nature of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
Jefferies (search) analysts forecast a loss of $1.99 per share and characterize the upcoming earnings report as largely uneventful, with COVID sales weighted to the second half of 2026.
The Phase III INTerpath-001 trial of mRNA-4157, a personalized cancer vaccine combined with Merck's Keytruda in melanoma (search), is seen as a major stock catalyst with data expected in H2 2026.
Moderna Inc. is set to report second-quarter earnings on July 31, with Jefferies (search) analysts forecasting a largely uneventful quarter as the company navigates the seasonal trough in COVID-19 vaccine demand. The report comes against a backdrop of heightened investor interest in the company's late-stage pipeline, particularly its personalized cancer vaccine program in melanoma (search).
The company previously guided for second-quarter revenue between $50 million and $100 million, a steep decline from the $389 million recorded in the first quarter. Jefferies (search) forecasts a loss of $1.99 per share on revenue of approximately $100 million, closely aligned with consensus expectations for a loss of $1.97 per share.
"COVID sales are mostly weighted to H2 2026," Jefferies (search) wrote, adding that lower vaccination rates year-over-year are expected to weigh on near-term revenue. The firm anticipates management could reiterate its 2026 revenue outlook for growth of up to 10% year over year, implying revenue of more than $2.1 billion.
Potential upside to the 2026 sales outlook could emerge from stabilization in U.S. COVID revenue, which declined from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025. Jefferies (search) expects international partnerships in Canada, Australia, and the UK to contribute to growth and help create a more balanced revenue mix between U.S. and ex-U.S. markets.
Pipeline Catalysts Take Center Stage
While the quarterly results may be subdued, Moderna's pipeline progress is commanding significant attention. The Phase III INTerpath-001 trial evaluating mRNA-4157 — the company's personalized cancer vaccine candidate in combination with Merck & Co. (search)'s Keytruda — represents a major potential catalyst for the stock, with results expected in the second half of 2026.
Jefferies (search) pointed to recent five-year Phase IIb data as supportive of the ongoing Phase III study in high-risk adjuvant melanoma (search), which enrolled 1,089 patients. The analysts noted that management appears confident in the timing of the readout based on event accrual, and said a statistically significant result could have a meaningful impact on investor sentiment.
Beyond Oncology: Flu, Norovirus, and Rare Disease
Moderna has several additional potential catalysts in 2026. Regulatory action for its mFluSiva (search) flu vaccine candidate is anticipated, with Jefferies (search) expecting U.S. approval by August 5 following a positive advisory committee review. However, commercial sales are not expected to begin until 2027.
The firm also highlighted potential Phase III updates for Moderna's norovirus vaccine candidate mRNA-1403 and pivotal data for mRNA-3927, an investigational treatment for propionic acidemia (search), as additional events to watch later this year.
Market Performance
Moderna's shares have outperformed the broader biotechnology sector year to date, gaining 124% compared with a 30% rise in the XBI biotechnology ETF. Much of the recent momentum has been tied to expectations around the company's oncology pipeline and the potential of its mRNA technology platform. Shares traded at $67 on Tuesday afternoon.