Novartis Projects 5-6% Annual Growth Through 2030 Backed by Multi-Billion Dollar Drug Portfolio
核心洞察
Novartis raised its compound annual sales growth forecast to 5-6% from 2025 to 2030, driven by eight commercialized assets with multi-billion dollar potential including Kisqali and Scemblix.
The company increased peak sales projections for key drugs, with Kisqali now expected to exceed $10 billion and Scemblix raised to over $4 billion from previous estimates.
Novartis achieved core operating margins of 41.2% in the first nine months of 2025, two years ahead of schedule, with expectations to maintain above 40% margins beginning in 2029.
Novartis AG projects accelerated growth through 2030, raising its compound annual sales growth forecast to 5-6% on a constant-currency basis from 2025 to 2030. The Swiss pharmaceutical giant updated its mid-term outlook ahead of its Meet Novartis Management event in London, citing higher confidence in long-term demand drivers and upcoming drug launches.
"As a pure-play medicines company, Novartis has delivered a strong track record of sales growth with core margin expansion," said Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis. "Looking ahead, we expect to sustain that momentum over the next five years, driven by assets we already have in hand as well as upcoming launches with multi-billion-dollar sales potential."
Elevated Peak Sales Projections for Key Assets
The company significantly raised peak sales projections for several core products. Kisqali, the breast cancer (搜索) therapy that generated $4.78 billion in 2025 with 57% year-on-year growth, now carries expectations of more than $10 billion in peak sales, up from the prior estimate of over $8 billion.
Scemblix, approved for certain types of chronic myeloid leukemia (搜索), saw its peak sales guidance lifted from above $3 billion to more than $4 billion. The drug achieved $1.29 billion in 2025 sales, representing an 85% surge from the previous year.
Novartis highlighted eight commercialized assets with de-risked multibillion-dollar potential: Kisqali, Cosentyx, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, Scemblix, Leqvio, Fabhalta and Rhapsido (搜索). Each is expected to deliver peak sales ranging from $3 billion to $10 billion, forming what the company views as a stable base for mid-term revenue growth.
Strong Financial Performance and Margin Expansion
The pharmaceutical company reported significant margin progress, with core operating income margin reaching 41.2% for the first nine months of 2025—two years ahead of schedule. Management expects margins to remain above 40% beginning in 2029, even after accounting for dilution from the planned acquisition of Avidity Biosciences (搜索).
Novartis' net sales in 2025 grew 8% year-on-year at constant currencies, exceeding $54.5 billion. The company's best-selling product was the heart failure (搜索) drug Entresto, which brought in nearly $7.75 billion in 2025, though this represented a 2% decrease from the previous year.
Growth was primarily driven by Kisqali and Pluvicto, the prostate cancer (搜索) radioconjugate that made $1.99 billion, representing a 42% increase. The company forecasts continued stability and growth for 2026, with net sales anticipated to increase by a low-single-digit percentage.
Aggressive M&A Strategy Continues
After completing over 30 strategic deals worth more than $23 billion in the past two years, Novartis shows no signs of slowing its acquisition pace. The company's 2025 dealmaking included three major acquisitions: Avidity Biosciences (搜索) for approximately $12 billion in October, Tourmaline Bio for $1.4 billion in September, and Anthos Therapeutics (搜索) for $3.1 billion in February.
"There's really no change in our M&A strategy," Narasimhan said during a media call. "We've been really consistent in wanting to build out our early-stage pipeline" with deals in the "sub-$2-billion range."
The company also pursues assets that "could launch in the next five years," complementing smaller early-stage deals with partnerships including a $5.7 billion agreement with Monte Rosa for molecular glue degraders, a $1.7 billion AI-focused contract with Relation (搜索) for atopic dermatitis (搜索) drugs, and a $1.5 billion partnership with China's SciNeuro (搜索) for an anti-amyloid antibody for Alzheimer's disease (搜索).
Pipeline Momentum and Infrastructure Investment
Novartis is entering what it describes as a catalyst-heavy period with more than 15 potentially submission-enabling readouts expected in the next two years. The company maintains more than 30 potential high-value medicines in its pipeline across four core therapeutic areas and advanced technology platforms.
The pharmaceutical giant also announced plans to expand its North Carolina operations as part of a $23 billion investment in U.S.-based infrastructure. The facility is expected to open in 2027-2028 and create 700 new jobs at Novartis plus more than 3,000 indirect jobs across the supply chain by the end of 2030.