Wegovy and Zepbound Expected to Drive $20B Growth in Heart Failure Market

GlobalData has identified heart failure as the next disease area to benefit from the sales-boosting power of GLP-1 drugs, with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy leading the charge. The analysts forecast that these drugs will contribute to a $20 billion increase in the heart failure market's value over the next decade.

Recent years have seen significant advancements in heart failure treatment, with mechanisms such as SGLT2 inhibition becoming part of the standard treatment toolkit. Boehringer Ingelheim's SGLT2 inhibitor, Jardiance, received approval for heart failure in 2021 and saw an expanded label in 2022 for a hard-to-treat population.

Starting from 2022, when the FDA expanded the Jardiance label, the heart failure drug market across the U.S., the five main European markets, and Japan was valued at $13.5 billion. GlobalData predicts this market will grow to $33.7 billion by 2032, driven by a near-10% compound annual growth rate. This growth is expected to be fueled by the introduction of GLP-1 drugs by Lilly and Novo, alongside other promising treatments like Mesoblast’s stem cell therapy Revascor and Bayer’s Kerendia.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are both making significant strides in the heart failure market, with Novo targeting an early 2025 resubmission for Wegovy after withdrawing its original filing to include data that could ensure the label includes hard endpoints. Lilly plans to file for FDA approval of tirzepatide in heart failure by the end of 2024. Bayer is also preparing for approval filings for its nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, Kerendia, following positive phase 3 data.

Kajal Jaddoo, a senior pharma analyst at GlobalData, emphasized the importance of novel mechanisms of action, enhanced clinical profiles, and improved compliance for new drug entrants aiming to capture market share in the heart failure sector.