Alturas Minerals Corp

16 new weight-loss drugs expected to enter the $200 billion market by 2031, challenging Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Amgen and Pfizer among companies testing treatments. New entrants could lower prices. Potential acquisitions in the obesity sector anticipated.

Pemvidutide (ALT-801) is expected to generate $143 mn annually by 2039 in the US, with a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) used for valuation. Developed by Altimmune, Pemvidutide targets obesity, NASH, NAFLD, and type 2 diabetes via subcutaneous administration. Altimmune reported FY2023 revenues of $0.4 mn with a net loss of $88.5 mn.

Incretin-modulating therapies, including Wegovy and Zepbound, are transforming obesity treatment, impacting vital organs and offering a holistic approach to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Despite early challenges, therapies like Novo Nordisk's semaglutide show promise in MASH Phase III trials. Dual agonism approaches, such as Zepbound and Boehringer Ingelheim's survodutide, demonstrate significant fibrosis improvement in Phase IIb results. Distinctions in receptor agonism effectiveness for MASH treatment are noted, with GLP-1/glucagon receptor agonists potentially more effective. Multiple companies, including Eli Lilly and Altimmune, are advancing their MASH therapies, with Phase III trials planned for 2024. The competitive MASH treatment pipeline emphasizes diverse mechanisms of action, with incretin-modulating treatments expected to be pivotal in future MASH management.