Structure Therapeutics

16 new weight-loss drugs expected by 2029 could expand the obesity treatment market to $200 billion by 2031, challenging Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Amgen and Pfizer are among companies testing drug candidates. New entrants may lower prices. Analysts predict significant acquisitions in the obesity sector targeting smaller drug developers.

Up to 16 new GLP-1 drugs could launch by 2029, capturing nearly a third of a $200B market by 2031, dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Competitors like Roche, Amgen, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Boehringer, Viking Therapeutics, and Structure Therapeutics may launch rival weight-loss drugs within 3-4 years. Novo Nordisk and Lilly are expected to retain 68% of weight-loss sales, but the market may see price declines of 10%-15% by 2027 due to competition.

Terns Pharmaceuticals' GLP-1 obesity drug, TERN-601, showed a 5.5% weight reduction in a Phase 1 trial, positioning it as a potential oral alternative to injectable obesity medicines. The drug's safety and tolerability were assessed over 28 days, with results indicating dose-dependent weight loss, notably 67% of high-dose participants achieving a 5.5% weight loss. Terns plans to initiate a mid-stage clinical trial in 2025.

Terns Pharmaceuticals' experimental weight loss pill, TERN-601, helped obese participants lose over 5% of their body weight in a Phase 1 trial, prompting plans for mid-stage testing. The highest dose resulted in nearly 5% more weight loss than placebo, with moderate side effects primarily nausea. Terns aims to compete in the obesity drug market, currently dominated by injectables from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with a focus on oral alternatives.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the obesity drug market with GLP-1 agonists, achieving multi-billion sales in 2024. Their drugs, including Mounjaro and Wegovy, lead in treating Type 2 diabetes and obesity, with the market expected to grow significantly. Other companies are advancing obesity treatments, indicating a competitive and expanding market.

Companies are competing in the weight loss drug market, with Zealand Pharma, Viking Therapeutics, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Structure Therapeutics, Altimmune, Pfizer, and Amgen developing new treatments. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk lead with drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro, also working on next-gen drugs. The market could reach $100 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo expected to dominate due to first-mover advantage and ongoing research into additional health benefits.

Four investors invest $400M in Hercules CM NewCo, licensing weight loss drugs from Jiangsu Hengrui. The startup could pay Hengrui up to $5.7B based on milestones. Its lead drug, HRS-7535, targets Type 2 diabetes and obesity, with two others in development. Bain Capital holds a 39% stake.