Development and Validation of an Early Prediction Model for Severe Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia in Children
试验速览
- 阶段
- 不适用
- 状态
- 已完成
- 入组人数
- 964
- 试验地点
- 1
- 主要终点
- Area under the curve (AUC)
研究概览
简要总结
Pneumonia is a major threat to the health of children. Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection is a core cause of pediatric pneumonia, and the incidence of severe mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (SMPP) has increased in recent years. SMPP leads to a range of extrapulmonary symptoms, including myocardial and liver injury, which may be life-threatening. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish an early warning model for SMPP to improve the prognosis of pediatric pneumonia. This observational study aims to establish a early prediction model of SMPP. Development cohorts are enrolled from Beijing Friendship Hospital between 2018-1-1 to 2024-5-31, and validation cohorts are enrolled between 2024-6-1 to 2025-6-30.
研究设计
- 研究类型
- Observational
- 观察模型
- Cohort
- 时间视角
- Prospective
入排标准
- 年龄范围
- 1 Month 至 14 Years（Child）
- 性别
- All
- 接受健康志愿者
- 否
入选标准
- •Age between 1 month to 14 years
- •diagnosed with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia
- •hospital stay ≥ 72 hours
排除标准
- •pulmonary chronicles
- •cardiovascular conditions
- •inherited metabolic disorders
- •immuno-deficiency disorders
- •coinfection with pathogens other than Mycoplasma pneumoniae
研究组 & 干预措施
Development
A primary cohort of eligible patients from the Beijing Friendship Hospital between 2018-1-1 and 2024-5-31 is used for model derivation.
干预措施: medical history taking, blood test, pulmonary ultrasound (Other)
Internal cross-validation
A cohort of consecutive patients from the Beijing Friendship Hospital between 2018-1-1 and 2024-5-31 is used for internal cross-validation.
干预措施: medical history taking, blood test, pulmonary ultrasound (Other)
External validation
A cohort of patients from the Beijing Friendship Hospital between 2024-6-1 and 2025-6-30 is used for internal cross-validation.
干预措施: medical history taking, blood test, pulmonary ultrasound (Other)
结局指标
主要结局
Area under the curve (AUC)
时间窗: through the hospitalization, an average of 7 days
The AUC of prediction model for SMPP
次要结局
- Sensitivity(through the hospitalization, an average of 7 days)
- Specificity(through the hospitalization, an average of 7 days)
- Positive prediction value (PPV)(through the hospitalization, an average of 7 days)
- Negative prediction value (NPV)(through the hospitalization, an average of 7 days)