Mapping Snakebite Risk in Kenya and Eswatini: Using Primary Data Collection and Geostatistical Techniques to Develop an Approach to Remote Risk Estimation for Snakebite

This study aims to understand whether spatial analysis methods can support the assessment and prediction of geographical variation in snakebite risk.

The investigators will analyse data collected from community and health facility surveys conducted in geographically, ecologically and demographically diverse areas of Kenya and Eswatini. Data sources will comprise existing snakebite incidence data from both countries and prospective data collected through adding snakebite questions to planned health/demographic survey platforms where feasible and conducting a small number of stand-alone cluster-sampled surveys to complement this. Selected households will be invited to complete short questionnaires covering sociodemographic details and snakebite history. Survey data will be compared with health facility data collected in the same locations to assess the value and relative bias of different data sources to snakebite risk assessment. Data will be analysed using geostatistical techniques, and predicted risk will be mapped within and beyond sampled locations where appropriate. Our findings will build knowledge on spatial determinants of snakebite within these countries and support development of a risk mapping methodology for snakebite. Identification of high-risk locations will also support advocacy for resources and guide treatment and prevention activities.

Interviews will also be conducted with key stakeholders in healthcare and research fields in Kenya to help us understand the healthcare decision-making process and how outputs from spatial analysis of snakebite data can be best presented to support this. Interview results will aid development of recommendations for the optimal presentation of snakebite data to support programmatic decision making.