Climate Change Trends and Their Impact on the Seasonal Upper Respiratory Tract Disease Burden

The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza hit the human population like clockwork in temperate regions during winter. Many explanations for this phenomenon appear in the literature. Huang et al. reported in 2017 a decrease in Influenza incidence while average temperatures increased in Queensland, Australia. Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission among younger age groups (0-14). Not only is the temperature relevant, but all meteorological parameters also vary. For example, Qi et al. found that both low and high absolute humidity might increase influenza risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically.

The meteorological service in Israel reports a marked increase in temperature when comparing 2006-2020 to 1964-1979 and 1995-2009 across all seasons. The average warming rate from 1964-1979 to 2006-2020 is approximately 1.5°C, highlighting a notable temperature difference.

The investigators assume that global climate changes can influence Influenza peak prevalence, which may have significant clinical implication by adjusting seasonal Influenzas' vaccine timing.

The study will include identification of all patients who tested positive for URT infection with seasonal virus (Influenza, RSV, Rhinovirus, Human MetaPneumoVirus, ParaInflunza) via respiratory PCR since 2022, whether in the emergency department or during hospitalization. This will be followed by a review of medical records to extract baseline data: age, sex, weight, underlying medical conditions, and the need for hospitalization, intensive care admission, mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, or renal replacement therapy.