Biomarkers and Clinical Characteristics That Identify the Risk of an Exacerbation Following Viral Upper Respiratory Tract Infections in COPD Patients

Respiratory virus infections are a common cause of COPD exacerbations and antiviral therapies have potential as treatments for exacerbations. However it is likely that treating patients when they present with an exacerbation with antiviral drugs will be too late to be effective and earlier treatment at the time of the initial upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) will be required. The incidence of exacerbations following URTIs in COPD patients, and whether there are host factors and biomarkers that can identify the risk of this, is unknown. The aims of this study are to establish the proportion of viral URTIs that progress to an acute exacerbation in COPD patients and identify clinical, viral and biological markers that predict risk of an exacerbation following an URTI. In addition we will determine the frequency of, and risk factors for, bacterial infection following viral URTIs in COPD patients. This data will permit development of a model combining baseline patient characteristics, clinical measurements and biomarkers to predict exacerbation risk following viral URTI in COPD patients. The results will open the way for trials of antiviral therapy in COPD exacerbations and targeting of treatment to high risk patients.