Comparative Analysis of APACHE II and P-POSSUM Scoring Systems in Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Emergency Laparotomy

Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) as a Measure of the Accuracy of the APACHE II and P-POSSUM Scoring Systems to Predict Mortality

时间窗: 30 days

Participants will be followed for the duration of hospital stay (expected average of 30 days) and mortality was noted.All patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at Tata Main Hospital form 01st December 2013 to 30th November 2014 were included in the study. All patients were scored with APACHE II and P-POSSUM scoring systems on the day of surgery. Area under the curve (AUC) is used to measure the "size" of the prediction composed by the graphic display between the 'sensitivity' and the '1-specificity' relationship. AUC can range from 0.5 to 1.0 and a result of 1.0 indicates a perfect discriminatory ability. An AUC value \> 0.8 is considered good, a range between 0.60-0.80 is considered as moderate, and an AUC value \< 0.60 is regarded as poor. For APACHE-II, a cut off score of \>/=24 was determined; for P-POSSUM, a cut off score of \>/= 63 was determined.