AbbVie's Skyrizi and Rinvoq Drive Recovery as Humira Sales Plummet 50% Following Patent Loss
核心洞察
AbbVie (搜索) expects robust revenue growth in 2025, just two years after losing U.S. exclusivity for Humira in January 2023, with the flagship drug's sales declining nearly 50% to $1.12 billion in Q1 2025.
The company's ex-Humira platform grew over 21% year-over-year in Q1 2025, driven by newer immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which showed strong performance across inflammatory bowel disease (搜索) indications.
AbbVie (搜索) raised its guidance by $900 million and now expects $24.7 billion in combined sales from Skyrizi and Rinvoq this year, with potential for five new Rinvoq indications.
AbbVie (搜索) is demonstrating a remarkable recovery trajectory just two years after losing U.S. patent protection for its blockbuster drug Humira, with newer immunology treatments Skyrizi and Rinvoq driving significant revenue growth and positioning the company for robust expansion in 2025.
Humira's Steep Decline Offset by Strong Successor Performance
Humira, which lost U.S. exclusivity in January 2023 after previously losing patent protection in international markets in 2018, saw first-quarter 2025 sales plummet nearly 50% year-over-year to $1.12 billion. Despite this dramatic decline from what was once the world's best-selling drug, AbbVie (搜索)'s ex-Humira platform demonstrated resilience with growth exceeding 21% year-over-year on a reported basis in the first quarter of 2025.
The growth was primarily driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq, AbbVie (搜索)'s next-generation immunology drugs that the company successfully launched across Humira's major indications while also expanding into new therapeutic areas, including atopic dermatitis (搜索). Both medications have shown particularly strong performance in the inflammatory bowel disease (搜索) (IBD) space, which encompasses ulcerative colitis (搜索) and Crohn's disease (搜索).
Significant Revenue Projections and Pipeline Expansion
Based on continued momentum from market share gains and new indication approvals, AbbVie (搜索) raised its previously issued guidance by approximately $900 million. The company now projects combined sales of $24.7 billion from Skyrizi and Rinvoq for the current year, with analyst models estimating the figure could reach around $24.85 billion.
The growth trajectory is expected to be sustained by strong immunology market expansion, continued market share gains, and momentum from new indications. Notably, Skyrizi recently launched for ulcerative colitis (搜索), while Rinvoq has potential for five additional indications over the next several years, providing multiple catalysts for future revenue growth.
Competitive Landscape in Immunology
The immunology market remains intensely competitive, with several major pharmaceutical companies vying for market share. Johnson & Johnson maintains a significant presence with blockbuster medications Stelara and Tremfya, both approved across multiple immunology indications including ulcerative colitis (搜索) and Crohn's disease (搜索). Following Stelara's loss of U.S. patent protection earlier this year, Johnson & Johnson has strategically shifted focus to Tremfya to preserve its immunology market position.
Eli Lilly has emerged as another significant competitor following FDA approval of Omvoh for ulcerative colitis (搜索) in late 2023, marking the company's first immunology drug approved for inflammatory bowel disease (搜索) in the United States. The drug subsequently received FDA approval for Crohn's disease (搜索) in January, representing a key component of Lilly's expanding immunology portfolio.
Market Performance and Valuation
AbbVie (搜索) shares have outperformed the broader industry year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the company's post-Humira strategy. From a valuation perspective, the stock currently trades at 14.48 times forward earnings, slightly below the industry average of 15.12. While the valuation is lower than some large pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, it remains elevated compared to most other major drugmakers and trades above the company's five-year mean of 12.38.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has remained relatively stable at $12.28 per share, down slightly from $12.30, while 2026 estimates have increased from $13.97 to $14.05 over the past 60 days, indicating analyst confidence in the company's medium-term prospects.