China Closing In but US Still Leads in Biotech Innovation, Cure Survey Finds
核心洞察
The Cure Innovation Index (搜索) survey of 117 senior US leaders finds the US leads in technology transfer, capital, commercialization, and talent, while China leads in clinical development and supply chain.
The two countries are viewed as tied in scientific discovery, but 85% of respondents believe the US lead will last 10 years or less.
By 2024, China's share of early drug development programs rose to over 32% from 8% in 2015, while the US share dropped to around 37% from 48%.
The United States remains the global leader in biotechnology innovation, but confidence in that leadership is eroding as China rapidly closes the gap, according to a new survey of senior US leaders in industry and academia.
The poll, conducted by the Cure Innovation Index (搜索) and presented Monday at the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (搜索) annual meeting in San Diego, found that China is now seen as the clear leader in two of six key sectors: clinical development and supply chain. The US holds the lead in technology transfer, capital, commercialization, and talent, while the two countries were viewed as tied in scientific discovery.
"The US is still leading, but confidence is eroding. Most said they see China as an existential threat," said Seema Kumar, CEO at Cure, an affiliate of investment firm Deerfield Management (搜索).
Of the 117 respondents surveyed, 85% said the US lead will last 10 years or less, underscoring the urgency felt across the sector.
Shifting Global Dynamics in Drug Development
The survey findings reflect a dramatic reshaping of the global pharmaceutical landscape. By 2024, the US share of early drug development programs had dropped to around 37% from 48% in 2015, while China's share of the global total rose to over 32% from 8%, according to a study conducted by Georgetown University.
In recent years, multinational pharmaceutical companies have augmented their pipelines with candidates developed in China, where costs are low, regulation is streamlined, and some argue government subsidies offer an unfair advantage. Drugmakers are licensing molecules from China at an accelerating pace, betting they can turn upfront payments of as little as $80 million into multibillion-dollar treatments.
These trends have drawn attention from the US government. The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology warned in a December report that "China has systematically built a vertically integrated biotechnology ecosystem that is now in prime position to challenge US leadership." The Biosecure Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump late last year, restricts federal agencies' business dealings with non-US biotechnology companies.
America's Commercialization Advantage
Despite China's gains, Kumar emphasized that the US retains a critical edge in bringing products to market. "China has speed, scale, manufacturing, development, execution, and the US is better at scientific quality, talent, some work on the tech transfer, and most important of all, it has the access to the world's most valuable healthcare market," Kumar said. "Commercialization is America's superpower. ... The buyer is in the US."
The US accounted for 53% of the global pharmaceutical market in 2025, up from 49% in 2021, according to Iqvia. Europe's share remained steady at 24%, while the Asia-Pacific region's share dipped to 11% from 13%.
Funding Concerns Outweigh China Threat
The survey's other major finding is that respondents rated the growing threat of US research funding cuts as a bigger concern than competition from China. Kumar noted that while the US possesses all the right ingredients for continued leadership, the approach to funding likely needs to change.
She suggested that more needs to be done to secure financing at the National Institutes of Health and to modernize the nation's clinical development infrastructure, which has not been addressed since the nearly 50-year-old Bayh-Dole Act.