Dry AMD Market Poised for 19.2% CAGR Growth Through 2036 as Pipeline Diversifies Beyond Complement Inhibition
核心洞察
The Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration (搜索) market across the 7MM is projected to grow at a 19.2% CAGR through 2036, driven by novel therapies and rising disease prevalence exceeding 72 million AMD cases in 2025.
Emerging oral therapies like Tinlarebant and Gildeuretinol acetate target vitamin A–driven retinal toxicity, offering alternatives to chronic intravitreal injections required by approved complement inhibitors IZERVAY and SYFOVRE.
Ocugen reported a statistically significant 31% reduction in GA lesion growth in its Phase II ArMaDa trial for gene therapy OCU410, with Phase III initiation planned for Q3 2026.
The global Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration (搜索) (Dry AMD) market is entering a transformative era, with DelveInsight projecting a 19.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2036 across the seven major markets (7MM: United States, EU4, United Kingdom, and Japan). This growth trajectory reflects the convergence of an aging population, improved diagnostic rates, and a rapidly diversifying pipeline that extends well beyond the first-generation complement inhibitors.
In 2025, the total prevalent cases of AMD across the 7MM were estimated at over 72 million, with the United States alone accounting for approximately 0.8 million prevalent cases of geographic atrophy (搜索) (GA)—the advanced form of Dry AMD. The late-stage AMD population in the US was estimated at nearly 1.9 million cases in 2025, with the highest GA burden concentrated among patients aged 85 years and older, followed by those aged 65 to 84 years.
Marketed Therapies Establish the Foundation
The Dry AMD treatment landscape, historically limited to supportive care with AREDS nutritional supplementation and lifestyle modifications, has been reshaped by two FDA-approved complement-targeting therapies. IZERVAY (avacincaptad pegol), developed by Iveric Bio and now commercialized by Astellas Pharma following its 2023 acquisition, received US FDA approval in August 2023. The RNA aptamer-based therapy is administered as a monthly intravitreal injection, with Phase III GATHER1 and GATHER2 trials demonstrating a statistically significant reduction in GA lesion growth compared with sham treatment.
SYFOVRE (pegcetacoplan), from Apellis Pharmaceuticals, targets complement component C3 and is administered either monthly or every other month via intravitreal injection. The Phase III OAKS and DERBY trials showed clinically meaningful reductions in GA lesion growth, with increasing efficacy observed over time. While neither therapy restores lost vision, both represent a paradigm shift toward mechanism-based disease modification.
Pipeline Diversifies with Oral and Gene Therapy Approaches
Emerging therapies are targeting novel biological pathways beyond complement inhibition, with several candidates advancing through late-stage development. Tinlarebant (LBS-008) from Belite Bio (搜索) is an oral therapy designed to reduce accumulation of vitamin A–based toxins (bisretinoids) by lowering serum retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4 (搜索)), the carrier protein for retinol transport to the eye. The therapy is currently in Phase III clinical development.
Gildeuretinol acetate (ALK-001) from Alkeus Pharmaceuticals (搜索) is another oral new molecular entity that reduces vitamin A dimerization without modulating the visual cycle. The therapy is being evaluated in Phase III trials for geographic atrophy (搜索) secondary to AMD, with data presented at multiple scientific congresses including the Macula Society Annual Meeting (February 2025), the ASRS Annual Scientific Meeting (July 2025), and the FLORetina ICOOR Congress (December 2025).
Additional pipeline candidates include AVD-104 from Aviceda Therapeutics, which employs glycoimmune modulation to reduce inflammation and protect retinal cells; Risuteganib (ALG-1001) from Allegro Ophthalmics; and JNJ-1887 from Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine.
Gene Therapy and Regenerative Medicine Gain Momentum
On March 24, 2026, Ocugen reported topline 12-month results from the Phase II ArMaDa trial, demonstrating a statistically significant 31% reduction in GA lesion growth at the dose selected for Phase III development. The study also showed photoreceptor preservation and a favorable safety profile. Ocugen announced plans to initiate a Phase III registrational trial in Q3 2026, positioning OCU410 among the most advanced late-stage gene therapies for geographic atrophy (搜索).
On January 28, 2026, Eyestem Research (搜索) received CDSCO approval to initiate a Phase II randomized controlled trial of Eyecyte-RPE in patients with geographic atrophy (搜索) associated with Dry AMD. The retinal pigment epithelium cell therapy is designed to restore retinal function through regenerative medicine, offering a differentiated approach from both complement inhibitors and gene therapies.
DelveInsight notes that gene therapies and regenerative medicine candidates are attracting substantial industry interest due to their potential to provide long-term efficacy through one-time administration—a key factor expected to influence future market share and physician adoption.
Unmet Needs and Future Outlook
Despite recent therapeutic advances, substantial unmet needs remain in Dry AMD, particularly in visual function preservation, retinal regeneration, and early disease intervention. The current approved therapies slow GA progression but require regular intravitreal administration and do not restore lost vision. The pipeline's shift toward oral therapies, gene therapies, and cell-based regenerative approaches reflects an industry-wide effort to address these limitations through reduced treatment burden and novel mechanisms of action.
Key companies shaping the competitive landscape include Astellas Pharma/Iveric Bio, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Belite Bio (搜索), Alkeus Pharmaceuticals (搜索), Aviceda Therapeutics, Allegro Ophthalmics, Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, and others. As clinical readouts continue and regulatory milestones approach, the Dry AMD market is positioned for significant expansion, creating opportunities for pipeline developers and investors alike.