Global Type 1 Diabetes Burden Projected to Rise 29% by 2049, Reaching 12.1 Million Cases
核心洞察
New DIAMOND-T1D model estimates project the global number of people living with type 1 diabetes (搜索) will rise 29%, from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million in 2049.
Annual new cases are expected to increase 14% over the same period, from 530,024 to 605,058, with the largest relative prevalence growth occurring in low-income countries.
All-cause deaths among people with type 1 diabetes (搜索) are projected to climb from 361,383 in 2025 to 537,621 in 2049, underscoring the need for improved insulin access and care.
New research to be presented at the Annual Meeting of The European Association for the Study of Diabetes (搜索) (EASD) in Milan, Italy (Sept 28 – Oct 2) estimates that the number of people living with type 1 diabetes (搜索) (T1D) worldwide will increase by 29%, from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million in 2049. The number of new cases per year is projected to rise by 14% across the same period. These estimates were developed using the DIAMOND-T1D model under the leadership of Professor Anders Green, Steno Diabetes Center Odense (搜索), Denmark.
A Rising Global Burden with Uneven Distribution
The DIAMOND-T1D model estimates a rise in global T1D incident cases per year from 530,024 in 2025 to 605,058 by 2049, a 14% increase. Although the majority of people with T1D live in high-income countries (HIC) and middle-income countries (MIC), the largest relative increase in T1D prevalence is expected to occur in low-income countries (LIC) as access to insulin, glucose monitoring, and survival all improve in those settings.
High-income countries will see substantial increases in the number of people living with T1D by 2049. The UK is projected to see numbers rise by around one third (more than 100,000), from 313,725 to 420,551. The USA will see an increase of over half a million, going from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235. Italy's increase of 16% is predicted to be less steep, but will still see an estimated 239,145 people living with T1D in 2049, compared to 205,499 estimated in 2025. Despite this rise in prevalence, the yearly increase in new cases (incidence) will remain similar in 2049 compared with 2025 in these and other HIC.
The authors suggest that the reasons for the predicted high incidence and prevalence in 2049 in countries such as Australia, the US, and the UK are likely a combination of genetics, environmental triggers, and high case detection rates due to well-developed healthcare infrastructure.
Disproportionate Impact in Low-Income Countries
Low-income countries face a particularly steep trajectory. Tanzania, for example, will see the rate of new cases per year double, from 3,275 to 6,177 per year between 2025 and 2049. The absolute numbers of people living with T1D in Tanzania will also double, but from a relatively low base of 19,101 to 39,673.
The age distribution of the disease burden is also striking. The 0–19 years age group was estimated to account for 42% of incident cases in 2025, ranging from 37% in HIC to 49% in LIC. The same age group accounted for 15% of global all-cause deaths in the T1D population in 2025, ranging from 4% of deaths at all ages in HIC to 34% in LIC. For all-cause deaths among people living with T1D, the model estimates an increase from 361,383 in 2025 to 537,621 in 2049.
A Novel Modeling Approach
Unlike previous estimates, the DIAMOND-T1D model takes historical patterns of insulin availability into account and aims to provide global, regional, and country-specific estimates of T1D incidence, prevalence, and mortality from 1900 to 2050. The model uses available data on T1D incidence, population age distribution, and survival, combined with assumptions concerning age-specific incidence rates and mortality in T1D and the year of introduction of insulin in each country. The model has been validated against population-based registry data from Denmark and Scotland.
Within the near future, the model will be available as a user-friendly open-access web-based system, enabling users to create alternative country-specific epidemiological scenarios for T1D by changing key input variables. The model also offers the option to compare country and regional T1D estimates, which the authors describe as being of considerable epidemiological interest.
Implications for Policy and Care
Epidemiological data on T1D are limited and especially scarce in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Accurate estimates of T1D incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates are crucial for forming local and national health policies and for implementing the World Health Organization's 'Global Diabetes Compact' initiative, which aims to reduce the risk of diabetes and ensure that all people diagnosed with diabetes have access to equitable, comprehensive, affordable, and quality treatment and care.
The authors conclude: "We estimate a rising global T1D burden, underscoring the need to continue to improve access to insulin and quality of care, particularly in low-resource settings. Our prevalence estimates are lower than existing estimates from other sources including the T1D Index and the Global Burden of Disease Study mainly because of more conservative assumptions about survival in persons with T1D, particularly in older ages and low-income and middle-income countries. In this context, the DIAMOND-T1D model offers a novel approach that allows changes in key assumptions on age-specific incidence rates and survival in T1D, enabling informed decision-making, and at the same time making the model gradually more precise when more T1D data becomes available."