IBM CEO: Quantum Computing to Deliver Measurable Revenue by 2028–2029, Trillion-Dollar Value by End of 2030s
核心洞察
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna projects quantum computing will begin contributing measurable revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029, with total value reaching one trillion dollars by the end of the 2030s.
New research with Algorithmiq (搜索) demonstrates quantum advantage, showing quantum computers can perform tasks beyond the reach of classical computers, with applications in drug discovery, materials science, and batteries.
IBM plans a standalone quantum chip foundry backed by $2 billion in combined investment from the U.S. CHIPS program and IBM to strengthen domestic quantum processor manufacturing.
IBM Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna has laid out an ambitious timeline for quantum computing's commercial arrival, telling CNBC that the technology will begin making a measurable contribution to the company's revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029, and could generate a trillion dollars in value by the end of the 2030s. The remarks, delivered on CNBC's "Mad Money," represent one of the most concrete financial forecasts yet from a major technology leader on quantum computing's near-term economic impact.
"By the end of the 2030s, we are now pretty convinced this is a trillion dollars of value," Krishna said, adding that IBM believes quantum computing is approaching an inflection point after years of research and development.
Quantum Advantage Demonstrated
Krishna's projections were bolstered by new research announced jointly by IBM and startup Algorithmiq (搜索), which the companies said demonstrated quantum advantage — a milestone in which a quantum computer performs a specific computational task more efficiently than today's most powerful classical computers while also verifying the correctness of its results.
"Quantum computer can do things better, faster, cheaper, in a way that normal classical computers cannot do at this time," Krishna said. The work employed error-mitigated quantum simulation, aiming to show that useful quantum computations can be performed even before fully fault-tolerant quantum computers become available.
According to Krishna, IBM's quantum computers are already beginning to reveal scientific phenomena that conventional computers have struggled to simulate, with potential applications spanning battery development, new materials, fusion energy, and pharmaceutical research — including drug discovery through accurate modeling of molecular interactions.
Manufacturing Expansion and Competition
In May, IBM announced plans to establish a standalone quantum chip foundry, supported by a $1 billion commitment from the U.S. Department of Commerce through the CHIPS incentive program and a matching $1 billion investment from IBM. The foundry is intended to strengthen domestic manufacturing of quantum processors as competition intensifies across the industry.
IBM faces growing competition from companies including Google (搜索) and Rigetti Computing (搜索), as well as a wave of startups developing quantum hardware, software, and enabling technologies. Several technology companies have also accelerated investments in quantum error correction, which seeks to reduce the computational errors that currently limit quantum computers' scale and reliability.
Despite continued technical challenges — including reducing error rates, increasing qubit counts, and scaling systems to larger sizes — IBM has maintained an aggressive development roadmap centered on increasingly capable quantum processors.
Investor Reassurance
Krishna also addressed investor concerns following IBM's recent earnings report, which triggered the company's largest single-day stock decline on record after some customers delayed capital spending decisions. Shares fell sharply after the company disclosed that several enterprise deals had been postponed, prompting questions about near-term demand.
"Here's the good news: about 40% of them have already closed in three to four weeks," Krishna said. "That's a good signal that it is a deferral, not a destruction."
India Installation on the Horizon
Separately, Krishna confirmed that Amaravati, India, will host one of the first two IBM quantum computers installed in the country, with commissioning confirmed for September 2026. The installation is part of a collaborative effort uniting government, industry, and academia to foster quantum technology development and commercialization in India, with pharmaceutical companies among the sectors expected to benefit from access to advanced quantum computational capabilities for drug discovery applications.