Merck Forecasts 2026 Revenue Below Wall Street Estimates as Patent Cliff Looms

Merck & Co (搜索)搜索该词条 on Tuesday projected 2026 sales and profits below Wall Street expectations, citing the imminent loss of patent exclusivity on diabetes (搜索)搜索该疾病 drug Januvia查看药品详情 and other key medicines that will impact revenue more severely than analysts anticipated. The pharmaceutical giant expects 2026 revenue between $65.5 billion and $67.0 billion, with even the upper end falling short of the average analyst estimate of $67.6 billion.

The cautious outlook overshadowed otherwise strong fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded both profit and sales expectations, driven primarily by robust demand for the company's blockbuster cancer (搜索)搜索该疾病 immunotherapy Keytruda查看药品详情.

Patent Cliff Challenges Exceed Analyst Projections

CEO Rob Davis acknowledged that the disconnect with Wall Street centers on legacy products approaching patent expiration. "Where the disconnect is coming with the Street, frankly, is in a lot of our legacy products, and these are products that are all largely going off patent," Davis said in an interview. "As I look at the strategic drivers of this company, I'm actually very confident."

The drugs expected to underperform analyst expectations include Januvia查看药品详情 and related diabetes (搜索)搜索该疾病 medicines Janumet查看药品详情 and Janumet XR (搜索)搜索该药品, as well as Bridion查看药品详情, an injection used to reverse muscle-blocking drugs at the end of surgery. Merck anticipates a $2.5 billion impact in 2026 from generic competition, Medicare price negotiations, and weaker sales of COVID-19 (搜索)搜索该疾病 treatment Lagevrio查看药品详情.

The new Medicare price for Januvia查看药品详情, negotiated under the Inflation Reduction Act, could further depress sales beyond analyst estimates. Davis noted that COVID-19 (搜索)搜索该疾病 treatment Lagevrio查看药品详情 would also likely fall below expectations as "with COVID fading... we've seen that slow quite a bit."

Strong Q4 Performance Led by Keytruda

Despite the challenging 2026 outlook, Merck delivered solid fourth-quarter results with adjusted earnings of $2.04 per share, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.01. Fourth-quarter sales reached $16.4 billion, exceeding Wall Street projections of $16.2 billion and representing a 5% increase year-over-year.

Keytruda查看药品详情 drove the sales growth with quarterly revenue of $8.37 billion, up 7% and beating analyst expectations of $8.23 billion. For the full year 2025, Keytruda generated $31.7 billion in sales, cementing its position as the world's top-selling prescription medicine.

This strong performance helped offset a steep 34% year-over-year decline in sales of the human papillomavirus (搜索)搜索该疾病 vaccine Gardasil查看药品详情, which brought in $1.03 billion for the quarter. The company has faced weak demand for Gardasil in China, leading to a halt in shipments to that market.

Strategic Acquisitions Bolster Pipeline

Anticipating Keytruda查看药品详情's patent expiration later this decade, Merck completed two major acquisitions in 2025, each valued in the $10 billion range. The company acquired Cidara Therapeutics查看公司主页 and Verona Pharma查看公司主页 to strengthen its pipeline with new drug candidates.

Davis indicated the company will continue pursuing strategic deals across oncology, cardiometabolic, and immunology treatments. "We continue to be in that $1 billion to $15 billion sweet spot, but as we've always said, we're willing to go bigger if we see a scientific opportunity that brings value," he said.

The acquisitions represent Merck's proactive approach to addressing the upcoming patent cliff, particularly as Keytruda查看药品详情 faces generic competition in the coming years. While legacy products face headwinds, the company's strategic focus on high-value therapeutic areas positions it for long-term growth beyond the current patent challenges.