Mizuho Strategist Reframes Healthcare as a Value Sector Amid Pharma Underperformance, Highlights Merck's Keytruda Dominance
核心洞察
Mizuho (搜索) healthcare strategist Jared Holz argues that years of underperformance have repositioned healthcare as a value sector, offering a counterbalance for growth-heavy portfolios concentrated in AI and technology stocks.
The Nasdaq-100 surged 63.91% over two years while Merck (搜索) stock declined 4.32%, illustrating the stark performance gap driving the sector's value proposition.
Merck (搜索)'s Keytruda franchise generated $8.03 billion in Q1 2026 sales, up 12%, with Holz emphasizing that competitors are forced into partnership rather than head-on competition due to Keytruda's dominance as a backbone therapy.
After years of trailing the broader market, the healthcare sector may be assuming a fundamentally different role in investor portfolios, according to Mizuho (搜索) healthcare strategist Jared Holz. Speaking on CNBC, Holz reframed drug stocks not as the traditional defensive holding but as an emerging value play — a shift driven by persistent underperformance relative to the technology sector.
"I think you just have to look at health care as almost like a value sector," Holz said, citing drug pricing pressure and managed care headwinds that have weighed on large-cap pharmaceutical companies while technology stocks surged higher.
The performance divergence is stark. The Nasdaq-100 has climbed 63.91% over the past two years, while Merck (搜索) (NYSE:MRK) stock has slipped 4.32% over the same window. This gap has created what Holz describes as an opportunity for investors whose portfolios have become heavily concentrated in growth-oriented names, particularly those tied to artificial intelligence.
"If you're very, very full to the gills with growth and you want to take a little bit off and you're trying to find some names that have underperformed, that's really what it's come down to," Holz explained. He tempered expectations for an imminent sector-wide rally, however, noting: "It's sort of like it's cheap. I'm not sure what it's going to do. But if you want to take a small position as an offset, I guess."
Merck (搜索): The Value Anchor with Keytruda at Its Core
Among large-cap pharmaceutical names, Holz identified Merck (搜索) as one of the clearest examples of a value opportunity. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 23 and carries a 2.74% dividend yield, with Wall Street's average analyst price target of $129.74 sitting above the recent price of $115.17.
Merck (搜索)'s Q1 2026 financial results underscore the company's fundamental strength. Revenue reached $16.29 billion, surpassing the $15.82 billion consensus estimate. The company subsequently raised its full-year 2026 guidance to $65.8 billion to $67.0 billion in revenue and $5.04 to $5.16 in non-GAAP earnings per share.
Central to Merck (搜索)'s investment thesis is Keytruda, the company's flagship immunotherapy. The franchise posted $8.03 billion in Q1 sales, reflecting 12% year-over-year growth. Speaking at the ASCO annual meeting, Holz emphasized Keytruda's entrenched position in the oncology landscape: "The thing that is sort of most resonating, maybe, is just the power of Merck's Keytruda and the fact that there are so many companies that are using Keytruda as the backbone for their therapy. No one can seem to get the results that they want in monotherapy."
This dynamic, Holz noted, forces would-be competitors into partnership arrangements rather than direct head-to-head competition — reinforcing Keytruda's commercial moat.
Summit Therapeutics: A High-Risk Challenger Emerges
At the opposite end of the risk spectrum sits Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SMMT), a clinical-stage biotech with a $12.48 billion market capitalization attempting to mount a challenge to Keytruda with ivonescimab, a bispecific PD-1 (搜索)/VEGF (搜索) antibody licensed from Akeso (搜索). Shares have declined 13.75% over the past year, with the analyst average target at $28.47 against a $15.71 close.
Summit presented overall survival data from the HARMONi-6 trial at the ASCO 2026 Plenary session on May 31. The company now faces a critical regulatory milestone: an FDA PDUFA decision on ivonescimab for EGFR (搜索)-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (搜索) (NSCLC) scheduled for November 14, 2026.
Holz highlighted a key debate surrounding the ivonescimab story. Much of Summit's most compelling clinical data has been generated from studies conducted in China, raising questions about how those results will translate to Western patient populations and regulatory standards. With $598.7 million in cash reserves against a quarterly burn rate of $114.7 million, the company's financial runway appears adequate in the near term, but the binary risk associated with the upcoming FDA decision remains substantial.
Sector Implications
For investors whose portfolios have grown increasingly concentrated in AI, software, and mega-cap technology stocks, healthcare now offers exposure to a different set of drivers at valuations that Holz suggests appear more reasonable. Merck (搜索) represents the higher-quality, cash-generating expression of this thesis, while Summit embodies the higher-risk, catalyst-dependent alternative — two sides of a sector undergoing a notable identity shift in the eyes of Wall Street.