New Global Catalogue of 239 Human-Infective RNA Viruses Identifies Pathogens With Greatest Pandemic Potential
核心洞察
Scientists from Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Peking universities have compiled the most comprehensive catalogue of human-infective RNA viruses, identifying 239 species known to infect humans.
The dataset reveals that two to three new human-infecting viruses are still discovered annually, with 90% of RNA viruses also found in non-human animal reservoirs.
Only 60 species are capable of sustained human-to-human transmission, and a subset of outbreak viruses has proven to be a powerful predictor of public health emergencies.
A research team spanning the Universities of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Peking has published the most comprehensive global catalogue of human-infective RNA viruses to date, providing a critical tool for identifying which pathogens pose the greatest pandemic threat. The dataset, published in Scientific Data, catalogues 239 virus species known to infect humans and tracks when and where they first emerged, how they spread, and their potential to cause outbreaks.
The study confirms that virus discovery is ongoing rather than slowing. In a typical year, scientists discover two or three viruses that have never been seen in people before — a trend that has remained fairly steady since the 1960s. "New human-infective viruses are being discovered all the time. Any one of them could be Disease X — the cause of the next pandemic," said Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh's Usher Institute. "Our database will help researchers characterise the threat and prepare for it."
Animal Reservoirs and Transmission Dynamics
The updated dataset shows that 90% of human-infective RNA viruses — 215 species — are also found in non-human animals, confirming that animal reservoirs remain the primary source of new human viruses. Only a minority of viruses, 60 species, are capable of sustained human-to-human transmission, including those responsible for epidemics and pandemics.
For two-thirds of the viruses on the list, an infected person is highly unlikely to pass their infection on. These zoonotic viruses, such as rabies (搜索), are typically acquired from animals rather than other people. While there is understandable concern that a zoonotic virus might acquire the ability to spread among humans, the researchers note there is no documented example of an RNA virus doing so — rabies has not, despite tens of thousands of human cases annually.
A much greater threat, the authors argue, comes from viruses that already possess human-to-human transmission capability. These pathogens might become even more transmissible, as demonstrated by successive SARS-CoV-2 variants, but they crossed over from animals already able to spread among people.
Outbreak Viruses as Predictors of Public Health Emergencies
A subset of viruses capable of spreading among humans has, so far, caused only limited outbreaks because their R number — the average number of people one infected person goes on to infect — is too low, and chains of infection eventually die out. However, R numbers can change when a virus previously confined to remote settings reaches densely populated urban areas, as occurred with Zaire ebolavirus in West Africa in 2014.
The catalogue's list of outbreak viruses has proven to be a powerful predictor of public health emergencies. Zaire ebolavirus, the insect-borne Chikungunya (搜索), Zika (搜索) and Oropouche viruses, and mpox (搜索) were all original entrants that subsequently caused major epidemics. More recently, rarer viruses on the list have gained prominence: Andes hantavirus (搜索) was responsible for a recent outbreak on a cruise ship, and Bundibugyo ebolavirus is currently spreading in central Africa.
Earlier versions of the dataset, first published in 2001 and last updated in 2018, successfully flagged high-consequence pathogens such as Ebola (搜索) virus and Zika (搜索) virus years before they caused major epidemics. Since the last update, more than 20 additional RNA virus species have been identified, alongside major changes to virus classification and rapid growth in genome sequencing.
Profiling the Next Pandemic Virus
The research also helps characterize what a future pandemic virus — sometimes called Disease X — might look like. In 2019, Woolhouse's team showed that highly transmissible viruses tend to be closely related to other viruses that spread between humans but emerge separately from animals. This description proved prescient for SARS-CoV-2, which is very similar to the original SARS coronavirus but was independently acquired from bats.
The year before, the World Health Organization had proposed a SARS-like coronavirus as a candidate for Disease X. By contrast, neither Andes nor Bundibugyo virus have the right profile to start a global pandemic. However, the researchers caution that a novel virus related to measles (搜索) would present a different scenario entirely — one with a real possibility of a worldwide emergency much worse than COVID-19 (搜索).
A Living Resource for Global Health Security
The openly available dataset includes detailed geographic information showing that new human-infective viruses have been identified in every region of the world except Antarctica, and links to publicly available genome sequences for most virus species. This integration of epidemiological and genomic data is intended to support more accurate modeling of virus emergence and spread.
The research team emphasizes that the catalogue represents a snapshot of current knowledge and will continue to evolve as new viruses are discovered and classifications are updated. By systematically cataloguing human-infective viruses, the study supports risk assessment and prioritization for global health security, helping to refine predictions about future outbreaks and strengthen preparedness against emerging infectious disease threats.