Novartis Raises Peak Sales Targets for Cancer Drugs Kisqali and Scemblix, Forecasts 5-6% Annual Growth Through 2030
核心洞察
Novartis increased peak sales forecasts for breast cancer (搜索) drug Kisqali to at least $10 billion from $8 billion and leukemia (搜索) therapy Scemblix to at least $4 billion from $3 billion.
The Swiss drugmaker projects 5-6% annual sales growth through 2030 on a currency-adjusted basis, driven by these key oncology assets despite patent expiries for other products.
The company has invested $30 billion in acquisitions and licensing deals this year, including a planned $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences (搜索) to strengthen its pipeline.
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis announced Thursday it has raised peak sales targets for two key cancer drugs while forecasting annual sales growth of 5% to 6% through 2030, signaling confidence in its oncology portfolio despite looming patent expiries for other major products.
The company increased its peak sales forecast for breast cancer (搜索) drug Kisqali to at least $10 billion, up from a previous estimate of $8 billion. For leukemia (搜索) therapy Scemblix, Novartis now expects peak sales of at least $4 billion, raised from at least $3 billion.
Strong Performance Drives Optimism
The revised targets reflect strong commercial momentum for both drugs. In the first nine months of 2025, Kisqali and Scemblix generated combined sales of $4.4 billion. Jefferies analysts noted there was "ample room" to raise targets further for the two drugs, suggesting continued upside potential.
Novartis shares rose approximately 1% in early trading following the announcement. The stock has gained 16% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic direction.
Strategic Acquisitions Bolster Pipeline
The growth projections come as Novartis has embarked on a $30 billion spending spree on acquisitions and licensing deals this year to strengthen its pipeline ahead of patent expiries for top-selling products including heart treatment Entresto and asthma (搜索) drug Xolair.
The company's planned $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences (搜索), which focuses on muscle-disorder treatments, is expected to lift projected annual sales growth for 2024-2029 to 6%, up from the previously expected 5%. The Avidity deal is anticipated to close in the first half of 2026.
CEO Vas Narasimhan emphasized the company's selective approach to future deals, stating, "We'll have a high bar for what we want to ultimately go after."
Navigating Regulatory Challenges
Novartis has factored potential pricing pressures into its projections, particularly for Kisqali. CEO Narasimhan said sales projections for the breast cancer (搜索) drug assumed it would be selected for price negotiations under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act in 2027.
"We think that IRA will have a limited impact on Kisqali in the first year," Narasimhan told journalists during a call.
JP Morgan analysts noted that investors will likely maintain a cautious approach for growth beyond 2030, given looming patent expiries and potential pricing pressure for Kisqali towards the end of the decade.
Financial Targets and Margin Outlook
Novartis said its eight most promising approved drugs each have peak-sales potential ranging from $3 billion to $10 billion, demonstrating the breadth of its commercial portfolio.
The company is targeting a core operating income margin of at least 40% by 2029, after accounting for a 1-2 percentage point drag from the Avidity acquisition. This compares with a 41.2% margin achieved in the first nine months of 2025.
The company's ability to deliver on its targets through 2030 and beyond will depend on the success of experimental drugs, including recently approved skin disease (搜索) drug Rhapsido (搜索) and the muscle-disorder treatment candidates acquired through the Avidity deal.