R&D Portfolio Prioritization Emerges as Critical Lever as Pharma Faces Patent Cliff and Capital Constraints

Pharmaceutical portfolio decision-making is facing structural pressure as patent expirations, rising development costs, regulatory complexity, and increasing shareholder scrutiny force organizations to reassess how they allocate capital, prioritize assets, and govern investment decisions. At the same time, AI-driven modelling and scenario tools promise better forecasting, yet many organizations remain uncertain about data maturity, bias risks, and governance implications.

The Marcus Evans 30th Edition Portfolio Decision-Making & Prioritisation for Pharma conference, taking place on 24-25 September 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany, will bring together senior leaders across portfolio management, PMO, R&D strategy, and commercial functions to explore how pharmaceutical organizations can make faster and more robust portfolio investment decisions in a capital-constrained environment. Sessions will explore asset prioritisation under patent cliff pressure, portfolio governance and decision frameworks, reprioritisation strategies, and the integration of AI-enabled analytics to support more disciplined portfolio management.

Cross-Asset Elements and R&D Governance

Despite repeated efforts, most PharmaCos do not possess a thorough, data-driven portfolio prioritization methodology. Cutting-edge approaches that use three to four tiers of prioritization can focus asset development to ensure sufficient funds are allocated to the highest-priority assets.

Since questionable assets are often selected for clinical development, rigorous criteria at the start of this process are crucial. The criteria employed at the outset need to be aligned with overall R&D strategies. A leading PharmaCo has pioneered such an approach with their 5R framework, which allowed them to increase R&D success rates from approximately 4% to approximately 19%. Other PharmaCos have developed similar approaches, such as a leading global PharmaCo which performs early-stage filtering and ongoing benefit–risk–value assessments, enabling active termination of low-value assets.

Asset Fast Lanes and Resource Management

To accelerate the development of the highest-priority assets, institutionalized asset fast lanes have proven to be a game-changing element, motivating people from across the company to support the development of those assets. Bristol Myers Squibb (搜索)搜索该公司 has successfully introduced such a fast lane—including high company attention for an asset, faster committee access, bootcamps, more trial sites, and A-teams—resulting in accelerated development timelines.

R&D resource forecasting and management still represent a very undervalued element. Indeed, most PharmaCos still fall short in this area. Without this element, PharmaCos cannot prioritize assets, nor can they allocate optimal resources to asset teams, a particular challenge during a capacity crunch. Leading PharmaCos have been able to implement cutting-edge approaches to address resource forecasting and management.

Empowering Asset Teams and Decision Committees

Despite the transition to asset team structures at most PharmaCos, the majority lack empowered asset teams with clear R&D governance as guardrails, while relevant functions have not been effectively integrated. Thus, the refinement of the asset team setup represents an element that most companies need to address. A leading PharmaCo has recently taken a major step toward asset team independence with its dynamic shared ownership approach.

Committee decisions on progressing or halting assets are crucial. Most PharmaCos have not fully grasped the importance of objective and efficient decision committees. These committees, concentrating on key decisions and milestones, play a vital role in the interplay with empowered asset teams.

Trailblazing Asset Development

While company-wide elements are important, asset-specific elements are particularly impactful. These are grouped into four key blocks: research and translational medicine, clinical development, early commercial strategy, and devices, diagnostics, and non-clinical development. Over recent years, PharmaCos have tended to excel in only one or two of these blocks, and the application of these elements relies excessively on the expertise of the asset team without structured frameworks to guide them.

In research and translational medicine, PharmaCos do not tend to view Translational Medicine as a differentiator for asset development. However, structured implementation of elements such as early definition of a thorough translational medicine strategy, a solid biomarker strategy with emphasis on biomarker-enabled proof of concepts (PoCs) and patient stratification, and innovative PK/PD and DDI modeling can have a substantial impact on development success. In recent years, in silico approaches for preclinical trials have been proven to make Translational Medicine more efficient. As an example, a leading PharmaCo leveraged in silico translational PK/PD modeling to significantly improve proof of mechanism (PoM) success rates.

In clinical development, several key elements have not been fully leveraged. To speed up the time to PoC and minimize resources, fail-fast approaches for Phases 1 and 2 could still be more widely applied, such as via biomarker read-outs. Other elements that could be improved include study designs (such as platform and adaptive trials) and identifying the right endpoints. PharmaCos should establish a comprehensive clinical library to facilitate these designs in each asset team.

Excellence in clinical operations can also be significantly enhanced. Site initiation can still be improved, and patient recruitment in particular needs innovative thinking to differentiate itself from the competition. PharmaCos have also emphasized the improvement of their service level for trial sites.

Early Commercial Strategy and Companion Diagnostics

PharmaCos still do not pay sufficient attention to the design of an Early Commercial Strategy, often resulting in severe underperformance when assets are launched. The clear prioritization of indications has the highest impact on the topline. PharmaCos should use market scenarios for the launch and feed this scenario analysis back into development plans, then conduct profound pricing modeling and optimize launch sequencing.

Higher price points are often only possible in stratified patient populations, so companies need to discover the most appropriate patient segmentation. To implement the patient segmentation strategy and utilize biomarker-enabled readouts, PharmaCos should design a sensible companion diagnostic (CDx) strategy early in the process. To avoid delays with CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls) work packages, prudent front-loading should be deployed, and cutting-edge CMC approaches, including digital and AI use cases, can also be utilized.

A differentiated device strategy has proven to be especially important for liquids. With patient-centricity on the rise, it is becoming ever more important to integrate patient preferences and insights into formulation development.