U.S. Employer Health Care Costs Projected to Rise 9.5% in 2027, Marking Fourth Consecutive Year of Near Double-Digit Growth
核心洞察
Aon projects U.S. employer health care costs will rise 9.5% in 2027, pushing average per-employee costs above $19,000, based on data from over 1,100 employers representing $135 billion in health spend.
WTW (搜索) projects an 11.1% increase if employers take no corrective action, the steepest single-year rise in nearly two decades, with plan redesigns potentially reducing that figure to 9.7%.
Employer health care cost growth has more than doubled since 2022, rising from 3.7% to 8.8% in 2026, while employees are expected to pay an average of $5,297 for coverage in 2026.
U.S. employer health care costs are projected to climb 9.5% in 2027, pushing average per-employee costs above $19,000, according to Aon's August 2026 cost analysis. The projection, drawn from data covering more than 1,100 U.S. employers representing $135 billion in health care spend, marks the fourth consecutive year of near double-digit cost growth and underscores the mounting financial pressure facing organizations across every industry.
The 9.5% figure represents Aon's projection of what costs will actually rise by after employers implement whatever cost-management actions they take. By contrast, WTW (搜索)'s 2026 Best Practices in Healthcare Survey projects an 11.1% increase if employers take no corrective action — the steepest projected single-year increase in nearly two decades — with plan redesigns potentially reducing that figure to 9.7%. The two firms are not disagreeing, but rather measuring different points in the same decision chain.
A Multi-Year Climb in Employer Costs
Employer health care cost increases have more than doubled since 2022, rising from 3.7% to 8.8% in 2026. On average, employers are responsible for about 82% of the plan cost, reflecting ongoing efforts to limit the financial impact on employees. While average plan costs increased 8.3%, the middle 50% of employers experienced increases ranging from 5.5% to 11.5%, demonstrating the wide variation in cost pressures organizations face.
Employees are also confronting growing affordability challenges. In 2026, employees are expected to pay an average of $5,297 for health care coverage, including both payroll contributions ($3,130) and out-of-pocket expenses ($2,167). The increase in out-of-pocket costs stems from increased utilization of health care services as well as enrollment in leaner plan options.
Cost Pressures Span Every Industry
Cost pressures are affecting employers across every sector, with all industries experiencing significant growth in plan costs from 2025 to 2026. Average employer cost increases ranged from 6.5% to 9.8% across industries, while total plan cost increases exceeded 6% across the board. Across all industries, employee contribution increases remained below overall employer and total plan cost increases, indicating that many organizations continue to absorb a significant share of rising health care expense.
The Role of GLP-1 Drug Spending
Among corporate employers that cover GLP-1 (搜索) medications for weight loss, the drugs represented an average of 11.4% of total annual claims in 2026, up from 6.9% in 2023, according to the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans' 2026 pulse survey of nearly 300 U.S. health plans. Despite that claims burden, overall employer coverage of GLP-1s for weight loss remained flat at 36% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, as employers balk at extending coverage while costs continue to compound.
Starbucks (搜索) confirmed it will stop covering GLP-1 (搜索) medications for weight loss from October, while retaining coverage for diabetes (搜索) and other approved indications. Joe Nadglowski, president and CEO of the Obesity (搜索) Action Coalition, called on Starbucks to reverse the decision, stating: "An employee should not lose access to a treatment simply because the diagnosis is obesity."
Reluctance to Pursue Structural Change
WTW (搜索)'s survey, which covered 471 employers at companies ranging from 100 to more than 25,000 workers and collectively representing 7 million employees, found that most employers are either unwilling or unready to make the structural changes required to meaningfully reduce costs. Nearly half of respondents, 49%, expect significant changes to their health care programs within the next three years, up sharply from 34% in the prior year's survey. However, 56% said they are unwilling to take "disruptive" actions to achieve the necessary savings — WTW's framing for structural changes including self-funding transitions, reference-based pricing, direct contracting, and pharmacy carve-outs.
The survey was conducted between June 22 and August 7, 2026, with full results due in September.
Looking Ahead
Employers are expected to face continued pressure from rising medical utilization, chronic disease prevalence, and growth in drug spending. "The organizations best positioned for the future will be those that can proactively identify emerging risks and take targeted action before costs escalate," said Debbie Ashford, North America Chief Actuary, Health Solutions for Aon. "Health care costs are becoming increasingly difficult to manage through traditional approaches alone. Employers will need better data and deeper insights to understand where costs are rising and how they can make more informed decisions about their health care investments."
To support these efforts, employers are increasingly turning to data and analytics tools that provide greater visibility into network performance, utilization patterns, and cost drivers. Aon's Health Value Initiative database, which captures health care costs and benefit designs for more than 1,100 U.S. employers representing 7.9 million employees and $135 billion in 2026 health care spend, underpins the historical information and projections. The 14% median small group premium requests already filed for 2027, reported by KFF earlier this year, signal that the rate environment for the next renewal cycle is not softening.