Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis and Infected Pancreatic Necrosis: Can we Predict Primary Drainage Failure?

Acute necrotizing pancreatitis is a frequent and potentially lethal disease, especially in case of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN). IPN usually occurs after the first week of evolution. The step up approach is now widely recommended for the management of IPN. In fact, in case of suspicion of IPN, a drainage percutaneous or transgastric is recommended at first, supported by probabilist antibiotherapy. 1/3 of patients won't require any other interventions. For 2/3 of patients, an additional necrosectomy is necessary. Necrosectomy was formally realized by open laparotomy. Since de last decade, mini-invasive technics have emerged: transgastric necrosectomy, video-assist retroperitoneal debridement. laparoscopy and permitted a decreased of morbidity and mortality. Recently, Hollemans et al. developed a nomogram based on 4 variables (sex, multi-organ failure, % of necrosis and collections heterogeneity) which are negative predictors for success of catheter drainage in IPN with an receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at 0.76. The aim of this study is to validate on a large retrospective cohort Hollemans nomogram in predicting catheter drainage success. Secondary aims are to evaluate possible others predictors for success of catheter drainage in IPN and to evaluate the impact of antibiotherapy on microbiological results and on the need for an additional necrosectomy regarding its type and duration, as well as the emergence of multiresistance organism.