The Impact of Innovative Tax Proposals on Purchase Patterns

Not Applicable

Completed

• Conditions: Cigarette Smoking

• Registration Number: NCT05370313
• Lead Sponsor: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Brief Summary

This study will investigate the effect of four tax proposals (i.e. Tobacco Parity, Nicotine-Content, Harm-Reduction, and Modified Risk Tobacco Product-related taxes) on tobacco product purchasing patterns.

Detailed Description

This study experimentally examines the effects of largely untried integrated tax proposals. Four tax proposals will be modeled: Tobacco Parity, Nicotine-Content, Harm-Reduction, and MRTP. Tobacco products are placed into three tax tiers: high-, medium-, and no-tax, according to the goals of each proposal. In a within-subjects design, cigarette smokers will complete two control (market price) trials and four conditions in the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace, representing each of the four tax proposals. Within each condition, taxes will be increased proportionally across 5 trials (relative to tax tier) to examine how cigarette purchasing, substitution, and poly-tobacco purchasing (i.e., diversity in products purchased) are affected.

Study Timeline

• Study First Submitted: 2022-04-29
• Study First Submitted QC: 2022-05-06
• Study First Posted: 2022-05-11
• Study Start: 2023-04-11
• Primary Completion: 2025-05-27
• Study Completion: 2025-06-10
• Status Verified: 2025-09
• Last Update Submitted: 2025-09-17
• Last Update Posted: 2025-09-18

Recruitment & Eligibility

• Status: COMPLETED
• Sex: All
• Target Recruitment: 285

Inclusion Criteria

• provide informed consent
• provide a breath carbon monoxide sample ≥ 8 ppm,
• be at least 21 years of age (the legal age to purchase tobacco),
• smoke at least 10 cigarettes daily, and
• use other tobacco products less than weekly.

Exclusion Criteria

• report uncontrolled physical or mental health conditions (e.g., uncontrolled diabetes, high blood pressure, major depressive disorder, etc.),
• use of smoking cessation medications (e.g., nicotine replacement, bupropion, varenicline) in the past 30 days,
• report concrete, immediate plans to alter/quit using their usual tobacco products in the next 30 days,
• be pregnant or lactating, or
• have plans to move out of the area during the experiment.

Study & Design

• Study Type: INTERVENTIONAL
• Study Design: CROSSOVER

Primary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Quantity of Tobacco Products Purchased in the High-Tax Tier - Product demand (intensity and elasticity)	1 day	Purchasing of high-tax tier products in the ETM conditions will be fit to a commonly used exponential demand model that quantifies the relationship between the multiplicative tax factor (e.g., 2 times base tax rate) and purchasing of high-tax tier products. This demand analysis (which assumes a negative association between price and purchasing) will be used in the high-tax tier products because participants will be conventional cigarette smokers and these products (when available) will always be in that tier. As such, we expect participants to defend their purchase of cigarettes in the high-tax tier under a variety of conditions. Demand estimates will be obtained for each participant in each tax proposal.
Quantity of Tobacco Products Purchased in the Medium- and No-tax tiers - Product substitution (intensity and slope)	1 day	Purchasing of medium- and no-tax products in the ETM conditions will be fit to ordinary least squares regression for each tax tier. This yields slope measures of each tax tier's product purchasing, wherein more positive slopes indicate greater substitution (i.e., greater increases in purchasing of substitutes as tax magnitudes increase). Ordinary least squares regression is used here to model purchasing in the medium- and no-tax tier because it is capable of measuring positive slopes, indicative of substitution, and distinguishing these tiers from those that do not show substitution. In the event this relationship is non-linear, we will consider other relevant models.

Trial Locations

Locations (2)

Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center; 🇺🇸 Buffalo, New York, United States

Fralin Biomedical Research Institute; 🇺🇸 Roanoke, Virginia, United States