Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization

• Conditions: Hospitalization; Emergency Department

• Registration Number: NCT03051737
• Lead Sponsor: Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris

Brief Summary

The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

Detailed Description

As secondary objectives, the study aims:

* to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.

* to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.

* Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.

This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

Study Timeline

• Study First Submitted: 2017-02-06
• Study First Submitted QC: 2017-02-09
• Study First Posted: 2017-02-14
• Study Start: 2021-06-01
• Status Verified: 2022-03
• Last Update Submitted: 2022-03-21
• Last Update Posted: 2022-03-22
• Primary Completion: 2023-12
• Study Completion: 2023-12

Recruitment & Eligibility

• Status: UNKNOWN
• Sex: All
• Target Recruitment: 18000000

Inclusion Criteria

• All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.

Exclusion Criteria

• None

Study & Design

• Study Type: OBSERVATIONAL
• Study Design: Not specified

Primary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Prediction of emergency department visits	throughout the study, an average of 18 months	Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares

Secondary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
Prediction by lever of gravity	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by need of hospitalization or no	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by age	throughout the study, an average of 18 months	By sub-group of child or senior
Prediction by type of care	throughout the study, an average of 18 months	By type : (medical, surgical or intensive) care
Typology of ED of the region of Paris	throughout the study, an average of 18 months

Trial Locations

Locations (1)

Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital; 🇫🇷 Bry sur Marne, Val-de-Marne, France