Identification of Multimorbid Patients With a Higher Probability of Readmission and Mortality: Role of Patient-related Variables

Social determinants have been shown to be related to the probability of readmission and death in multimorbid patients. These are increasingly older, which makes them more likely to be readmitted when their preferences are usually to be at home. Objective: To create and validate prediction models for readmission and mortality during home transitional period (1 month) and up to a year, in multimorbid patients, including variables related to the patient and their social environment. Design: Quali-quantitative. 4 hospitals from 3 regions (Andalucia, Catalonia and the Basque Country) will participate . Patients presenting at least 2 of the Ollero's categories will be included. Variables will be identified by means of nominal groups of professionals and focal groups with patients and caregivers. These variables will be included in the final models join to clinical variables, PROMS (health related quality of life, burden of the caregiver , social support). Logistic/ Cox regression models will be developed and validated internally to identify the risk of readmission and death which will be validated in an external cohort. Expected results: We hope to provide the health system with stratification tools for polypathological patients that help in identifying those patients with the greatest need for individualized interventions.