Predictive Models for Intensive Care Admission and Death of COVID-19

• Conditions: COVID19; Pneumonia, Viral; Inflammatory Response
• Interventions: Other: predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?

• Registration Number: NCT04401228
• Lead Sponsor: Clinique Saint Pierre Ottignies

Brief Summary

To build simple and reliable predictive scores for intensive care admissions and deaths in COVID19 patients. These scores adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guidelines.

The outcomes of the study are (i) admission in the Intensive Care Unit admission and (ii) death.

All patients admitted in the Emergency Department with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction SARS-COV2 test were included in the study. Routine clinical and laboratory data were collected at their admission and during their stay. Chest X-Rays and CT-Scans were performed and analyzed by a senior radiologist.

Generalized Linear Models using a binomial distribution with a logit link function (R software version X) were used to develop predictive scores for (i) admission to ICU among emergency ward patients; (ii) death among ICU patients. A first panel of Number Models with the highest AIC (BIC) was preselected. Ten-fold cross-validation was then used to estimate the out-of-sample prediction error among these preselected models. The one with the smallest prediction error was in the end singled out .

Detailed Description

Not available

Study Timeline

• Study Start: 2020-03-01
• Status Verified: 2020-05
• Primary Completion: 2020-05-01
• Study First Submitted: 2020-05-21
• Study First Submitted QC: 2020-05-22
• Last Update Submitted: 2020-05-22
• Study First Posted: 2020-05-26
• Last Update Posted: 2020-05-26
• Study Completion: 2021-01-01

Recruitment & Eligibility

• Status: UNKNOWN
• Sex: All
• Target Recruitment: 60

Inclusion Criteria

• RT-PCR + SARS Cov2 pneumonia

Exclusion Criteria

• < 18 ans -* GOLD 3 or 4 CPOD

Study & Design

• Study Type: OBSERVATIONAL
• Study Design: Not specified

Arm && Interventions

Group	Intervention	Description
covid conventionnal ward	predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?	-
covid ICU patients	predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?	-

Primary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
admission to ICU	through study completion, an average of 1 year

Secondary Outcome Measures

Name	Time	Method
death	through study completion, an average of 1 year

Trial Locations

Locations (1)

Clinique Saint-Pierre; 🇧🇪 Ottignies, Brabant Wallon, Belgium