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GSK's Arexvy Dominates RSV Vaccine Market with $1.2B Projected Sales, Outpacing Pfizer's Abrysvo

• GSK's Arexvy demonstrates exceptional market performance with Q3 sales reaching £709 million, positioning it as a potential first-year blockbuster with projected annual sales of $1-1.2 billion.

• Pfizer's Abrysvo records $375 million in Q3 sales, maintaining competitive position with unique maternal immunization approval that could provide strategic advantage in market expansion.

• The RSV vaccine market shows strong potential with 80 million eligible adults over 60 in the US alone, supporting industry predictions of a $10 billion global market opportunity.

GSK has established an early leadership position in the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine market, with its vaccine Arexvy demonstrating stronger initial market performance compared to Pfizer's Abrysvo in their first weeks post-launch.
GSK CEO Emma Walmsley characterized Arexvy's launch as "outstanding," with third-quarter sales reaching £709 million. The company has raised its full-year 2023 sales forecast to £900 million to £1 billion ($1 to $1.2 billion), suggesting potential blockbuster status in its first year. GSK anticipates Arexvy sales patterns will mirror those of their high-dose influenza vaccines, a core component of their vaccine portfolio.

Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape

While Pfizer's Abrysvo achieved respectable third-quarter revenues of $375 million, GSK's earlier US market entry appears to have provided a competitive advantage in the older adult segment. However, Pfizer maintains a unique position with Abrysvo's approval for maternal immunization, an indication GSK withdrew due to safety concerns.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla emphasized the strategic importance of their dual-indication approval, noting that "many customers have indicated to us that protecting both populations with one vaccine is desirable and a competitive advantage for Abrysvo." The CDC's endorsement for maternal use, received in late September, could influence future market dynamics.

Market Potential and Growth Strategies

The strong initial performance of both vaccines validates industry projections of a potential $10 billion annual global market. The US market alone presents significant opportunities with approximately 80 million adults over age 60 eligible for RSV vaccination, plus an additional 1.5 million pregnant women as candidates for maternal immunization.
GSK is pursuing market expansion through label extension, seeking approval for Arexvy use in vulnerable adults aged 50-59 with underlying health conditions. This strategic move could further strengthen their market position.

Future Market Evolution

The current duopoly may face new competition as companies like Moderna and Bavarian Nordic advance their late-stage RSV vaccine candidates. The robust early market performance suggests sustainable demand for adult RSV vaccines, particularly during the autumn RSV season.
Initial high sales figures reflect the necessary stock-building ahead of the RSV season, but the strong market reception indicates sustained growth potential in this newly established vaccine segment.
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Reference News

[1]
GSK grabs early lead in RSV vaccine race with Pfizer
pharmaphorum.com · Nov 2, 2023
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