The Trump administration has terminated $766 million in federal contracts to develop mRNA vaccines against potential pandemic flu viruses, marking a significant shift in U.S. pandemic preparedness strategy that former health security officials warn could leave the nation vulnerable in future health crises.
The cancellation specifically affects Moderna's H5N1 bird flu vaccine development program, which was funded by the Biden administration as the virus spread among U.S. cattle herds and infected dozens of people. Under the original agreement, the U.S. government retained rights to purchase vaccine doses in advance of a pandemic—a provision that no longer stands.
Growing H5N1 Threat Drives Urgency
The H5N1 bird flu virus has emerged as the most pertinent pandemic threat today, with researchers expressing alarm when it began spreading among cattle in the U.S. last year. The virus's ability to thrive in cows, which are biologically closer to humans than birds, indicates evolutionary adaptation that could facilitate human transmission.
"As hundreds of herds and dozens of people were infected in the U.S.," the virus demonstrated its potential for broader impact, prompting the previous administration's investment in rapid-response vaccine technology.
mRNA Technology Offers Speed Advantage
mRNA vaccines provide critical advantages over traditional vaccine development methods, particularly in pandemic scenarios where time is essential. While conventional approaches using chicken eggs or cell cultures can take 10 months after a variant's genetic sequence is identified, mRNA platforms can be developed much more quickly without relying on "finicky biological processes."
Rick Bright, an immunologist and former BARDA director, emphasized the time-sensitive nature of flu vaccine development: "Time matters because flu viruses mutate constantly, and vaccines work better when they match whatever variant is circulating."
The egg-based approach presents additional vulnerabilities for bird flu specifically, as a pandemic could devastate chicken populations and crash egg supplies needed for vaccine production.
National Security Implications
Former health security officials characterize the contract cancellation as undermining national defense capabilities. Beth Cameron, a senior adviser to the Brown University Pandemic Center and former White House National Security Council director, stated: "The administration's actions are gutting our deterrence from biological threats. Canceling this investment is a signal that we are changing our posture on pandemic preparedness, and that is not good for the American people."
The decision comes amid broader changes to health security infrastructure, with at least half of the National Security Council's staff laid off or departed, and the future of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) remaining uncertain.
International Competition in Vaccine Development
While the U.S. steps back from mRNA bird flu vaccine development, other countries are advancing their programs. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, headquartered in Norway, has committed up to $20 million for bird flu pandemic preparedness and is funding rapid-response vaccine technology development in South Korea, Singapore, and France.
Argentina's Sinergium Biotech is testing an mRNA vaccine against bird flu through a World Health Organization initiative, with plans to share intellectual property with approximately a dozen groups in middle-income countries. India's government has issued grant applications for mRNA bird flu vaccine development, warning the virus "poses a grave public health risk."
Safety Justification Questioned
HHS communications director Andrew Nixon defended the decision, stating: "We concluded that continued investment in Moderna's H5N1 mRNA vaccine was not scientifically or ethically justifiable. The decision reflects broader concerns about the use of mRNA platforms—particularly in light of mounting evidence of adverse events associated with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines."
However, Nixon did not provide citations to peer-reviewed scientific analyses supporting these claims. Published research demonstrates mRNA vaccine safety, including a placebo-controlled trial of more than 30,000 people showing rare and transient adverse effects from Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, while 30 placebo group participants suffered severe COVID-19 cases and one died.
A recent study of nearly 20,000 people receiving Moderna's vaccines and boosters found three cases of significant adverse effects that resolved within months, while COVID-19 killed four people during the study period. Regarding myocarditis concerns, research on 2.5 million people receiving Pfizer's mRNA vaccine revealed approximately 2 cases per 100,000 people, compared to 10-105 myocarditis cases per 100,000 from COVID-19 infection.
Pandemic Preparedness Concerns
The contract cancellation occurs as surveillance capabilities appear limited, with CDC data suggesting only 10 farmworkers have been tested for bird flu since March despite their high-risk exposure to cattle and poultry. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, warned that a bird flu pandemic might begin quietly if human-to-human transmission develops undetected.
"We'd need to immediately make vaccines," Rasmussen said, noting that existing bird flu vaccines target older H5N1 strains with unknown efficacy against currently circulating variants.
Former officials predict the U.S. could face supply shortages similar to those experienced by countries without domestic vaccine manufacturing during COVID-19. "When the need hits and we aren't ready, no other country will come to our rescue and we will suffer greatly," Bright warned.
Cameron expressed concern about potential domestic competition for limited supplies: "I fear we will once again see the kind of hunger games we saw in 2020," referring to states and cities competing for medical equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic's peak.
