Novo Nordisk's leadership has expressed confidence in managing upcoming Medicare price negotiations for their blockbuster GLP-1 medications, highlighting the company's strong market position and previous experience with government pricing discussions.
CEO Lars Jørgensen addressed the inclusion of semaglutide-based drugs - Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus - in the next round of Medicare price negotiations during a recent media briefing. "We have some experience in the first round of negotiations where some of our insulins were included and we feel comfortable in our ability to manage this," Jørgensen stated.
Market Distribution and Commercial Impact
The Danish pharmaceutical giant's relative ease stems from its diverse market presence in the United States. Dave Moore, president of Novo Nordisk Inc. in the US, detailed the company's channel mix: 50% commercial insurance, 30% Medicare, 10% Medicaid, and 10% other sources. This distribution suggests limited exposure to Medicare price negotiations.
Commercial access remains robust, with Wegovy maintaining coverage for 55 million people with obesity. Moore emphasized that "more than 80% are paying less than $25 for a prescription," indicating strong market penetration and accessibility.
Pricing Structure and Revenue Performance
The company has disclosed significant pricing dynamics, including a 69% spread between gross and net sales due to rebates. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen revealed this substantial gross-to-net adjustment, translating to actual revenue of $404.70 for Wegovy's list price of $1,349.
Despite these pricing adjustments, GLP-1 products generated approximately 60% of Novo Nordisk's $40.5 billion revenue in 2023. Wegovy demonstrated exceptional growth, increasing by 150% compared to the previous year.
Future Outlook and Strategic Planning
Looking ahead, Novo Nordisk is actively preparing for potential challenges, including the 2027 implementation of Medicare negotiations and the 2032 semaglutide patent expiration. The company is advancing its pipeline with next-generation treatments such as CagriSema and amycretin, currently in mid- to late-stage clinical trials.
Regarding potential political changes, Jørgensen acknowledged uncertainty about future administrations' impact on the Inflation Reduction Act, stating, "We don't have a lot of insight to what is going to happen under the Trump administration and the impact on the IRA, our base case is that it will continue."
