Eli Lilly's tirzepatide franchise has achieved a historic milestone, becoming the world's best-selling drug in the third quarter of 2024 and dethroning Merck's cancer immunotherapy Keytruda from its long-held position. The combined sales of Zepbound for obesity and Mounjaro for diabetes reached $10.1 billion in Q3, significantly outpacing Keytruda's $8.1 billion quarterly revenue.
The Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company reported exceptional financial performance, with third-quarter revenue climbing 54% year-over-year to $17.6 billion, compared to $11.4 billion in the same period last year. This substantial growth was primarily driven by the tirzepatide franchise, which experienced 62% volume growth despite facing price pressures that tempered what could have been even higher revenue gains.
Strong Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations
Lilly's Q3 results substantially exceeded analyst projections, with overall revenue beating expectations by 9% and earnings per share surpassing consensus estimates by 19%, according to Leerink Partners. The company's confidence in its trajectory led to an upward revision of full-year forecasts, with expected revenue now ranging between $63 billion and $63.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $60 billion to $62 billion. Earnings per share projections were similarly raised to $21.80 to $22.50, compared to the earlier range of $20.85 to $22.10.
The company's key product portfolio, including Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Kisunla, Mounjaro, Omvoh, Verzenio, and Zepbound, collectively generated $11.98 billion in the quarter. This performance represents a continuation of Lilly's impressive growth trajectory, following revenue increases to $15.6 billion in Q2 2024 (a 38% jump over Q2 2023) and $12.73 billion in Q1 2024.
Market Leadership in Expanding GLP-1 Sector
Lilly's success positions the company as a dominant force in the GLP-1 market, which analysts project will exceed $100 billion in the next decade. The company, previously best known for Prozac and pioneering insulin treatments, has successfully transformed its business model around these widely popular GLP-1 medicines. However, this transition has not been without challenges, as the company's stock performance has remained relatively flat over the past 12 months despite strong sales figures.
The competitive landscape has intensified, with both Lilly and rival Novo Nordisk facing revenue losses to compounding pharmacies that entered the market during manufacturing shortages. To differentiate its offerings, Lilly has conducted head-to-head studies demonstrating Zepbound's superiority over Novo's Wegovy in weight loss outcomes and is investing heavily in research comparing its experimental obesity pill with Novo's unapproved oral formulation.
Direct-to-Consumer Strategy Addresses Affordability
Recognizing the mounting pressure on pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug costs, particularly under the Trump administration, Lilly has expanded its direct-to-consumer initiatives through the LillyDirect platform. The company now offers insured patients access to pre-filled single-dose vials of Zepbound for $25 with a savings card, while uninsured patients can purchase the same vial for $349. This pricing strategy represents a significant discount from the average retail price of $1,272 for a monthly supply listed on GoodRx.
Additionally, Lilly announced a partnership with Walmart that will provide customers with access to discounted medications by mid-November, further expanding affordable access to its treatments. The company is also proactively addressing potential production challenges by investing heavily in manufacturing capacity for its experimental obesity pill before regulatory approval, learning from the supply constraints that previously affected its injectable GLP-1 drugs.
