Validation of the Prognostic Impact of a Retinal Photograph-based Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification System in de Novo HFrEF

"Despite significant advances in pharmacologic and device-based therapies, heart failure (HF) remains a major public health burden, with persistently high rates of hospitalization, impaired quality of life, and excess mortality-often exceeding those of leading malignancies. Prognosis in HF is shaped by its underlying etiology: ischemic HF often responds to revascularization strategies, whereas non-ischemic HF, particularly due to idiopathic or genetic cardiomyopathies, demonstrates highly variable outcomes and limited responsiveness to guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT). Although left ventricular reverse remodeling (LVRR) is associated with favorable outcomes, only 40-50% of non-ischemic HF patients achieve meaningful LVRR with GDMT alone.

In this context of therapeutic uncertainty and prognostic heterogeneity, there is a critical need for novel, non-invasive risk stratification tools. Retinal imaging offers a unique advantage, enabling direct, in vivo visualization of systemic microvascular and neurovascular integrity. Prior work from our group has demonstrated that deep learning algorithms applied to retinal fundus photographs can estimate physiologic and metabolic markers-including CAC scores-and predict future cardiovascular events. The Reti-CVD scoring system, derived from these models, has been externally validated in independent populations.

In the present study, we aim to evaluate the prognostic utility of the Reti-CVD model in a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed HF and reduced ejection fraction. Specifically, we will assess whether retinal-derived risk scores at baseline are associated with adverse clinical outcomes, including cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality, and whether prognostic performance varies according to HF etiology."